Marlins-Brewers prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, September 14

The Miami Marlins (75-71) eked out a 2-0 win over the Brewers (81-64) on Wednesday to move within a half-game of a National League Wild Card spot. They’ll look to nab that spot for good on Thursday in the series finale, when they send rookie phenom Eury Perez (5-4, 2.90 ERA) to the mound against Brewers righty Adrian Houser (5-4, 4.58). First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET.

The Marlins are -115 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Milwaukee is the narrow -105 underdog. The run total is set at 8.

Marlins-Brewers picks: Thursday, September 14

Injury report

Marlins

Day-to-day: OF Jazz Chisholm Jr. (right knee discomfort)
Out: SP Sandy Alcantara (right UCL sprain), DH/OF Jorge Soler (right oblique strain), OF Avisail Garcia (left hamstring strain), RP Huascar Brazoban (left hamstring strain, left hip impingement)

Brewers

Day-to-day: 1B/OF Mark Canha (sore left wrist), OF Christian Yelich (lower back stiffness)
Out: DH Jesse Winker (right quadriceps), OF Blake Perkins (left oblique strain), SP Julio Teheran (right hip impingement), CF Garrett Mitchell (left shoulder subluxation)

Starting pitchers

Eury Perez vs. Adrian Houser

This will be Perez’s seventh start since being recalled from Triple-A in August. He’s gone 0-1 with a 4.94 ERA over those seven starts, and is coming off an outing where he allowed two runs in five innings against the Phillies.

Houser will be pitching for the first time since Aug. 27, as he spent nearly three weeks on the injured list due to swelling in his right elbow. Prior to the two-inning start that put him on the injured list, Houser had a 3.80 ERA in 21.1 August innings, and was coming off a start where he allowed one run in five innings against the Rangers.

Over/Under pick

I like this under pick. While it might take Houser a second to find his bearings, I think he’ll be able to lock in and trade zeroes with Perez. This under has hit in the last two games of the series (and three of Perez’s last four starts) and I don’t see that trend changing today.

Pick: Under 8

Moneyline pick

The Marlins pick up a big win over a hampered Brewers team. I can’t see Canha or Yelich playing today, which means that Craig Counsell will be without two of his bigger bats in the lineup. I like Miami to win in a defensive battle.