Marlins vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Odds

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03 October 2023

Marlins vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Odds

The Philadelphia Phillies will look to get back to the World Series after falling just short last season, while the Miami Marlins just squeaked in. With Philadelphia holding the pitching advantage, our MLB picks are siding with the home team.

The last game on a busy first day of the MLB Postseason will take place at Citizens Bank Park where the Miami Marlins will try and continue to have success against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Both teams aren't exactly high up on the World Series odds table, but alas someone has to win this series. MLB odds have labeled the Phillies as the favorite to win this best-of-three set, and Philly will look to Zack Wheeler in Game 1.

Marlins vs Phillies odds

Marlins vs Phillies Game 1 odds

Marlins vs Phillies series odds

Marlins vs Phillies predictions

The Miami Marlins own a 7-6 record against the Philadelphia Phillies this year, taking the season series by winning two of three in Philadelphia early in September. While that should give Miami some confidence heading into this series — as should the return of Luis Arraez — I’m not quite sure it’s enough to ultimately get the team in the lead here.

Jesus Luzardo is simply trending in the wrong direction right now. Not only does he enter this one with a 3.65 ERA vs. the Phillies this year, he’s been pretty dreadful over the last two months. He stumbled to a 5.92 ERA in August before recovering slightly but still posted a 3.68 ERA in September. Worst of all, his strikeout and ground ball numbers declined while his xBA reached .269 in August.

The big narrative here, though, is that Luzardo’s walks have skyrocketed to 9% in the last three months. That’s bad news when you consider the Phillies are a team that has walked 9.8% of the time in the second half and boasts some excellent power.

I think this is a negative matchup for Luzardo and conversely a positive one for Zack Wheeler, who is a power pitcher with firmly above-average strikeout and walk numbers. The Marlins are just .223 with a .645 OPS against power pitchers this year and should go down rather easily here. I think the Phillies are undervalued and will gladly take them on the moneyline

My best bet: Phillies moneyline (-152 at FanDuel)

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Marlins vs Phillies same-game parlay

Phillies ML

Stott 1+ hit

Luzardo 2+ walks

Making same-game parlays is always a bit tricky when you have different markets at different books, but it's particularly tricky in baseball because you have to do some searching to find certain props you want. My focus in this game is on the pitching matchup, but unfortunately, if I want to get some pitching markets with value I'm going to have to sacrifice a bit on the first two legs.

I really like Bryson Stott to get a hit here. He’s 4-for-5 in his career against Luzardo, which makes a lot of sense given his skillset. The contact-hitting infielder is .282 vs. left-handed pitchers with an elite 14.4% strikeout rate, and against the slider, he’s the third-best Phillies player in terms of run value. Luzardo should be leaning heavily on the slider given it’s his best pitch in terms of expected batting average, and that should open the door for Stott.

Then, I'm going with Luzardo to issue two walks. As I noted earlier, his walk rate is around 9% for the last three months and he’s walked at least two in four of his last five starts. He is really struggling to keep the ball in the zone, and the Phillies have been excellent at drawing walks since the All-Star break.

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Marlins vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis

One thing that I love here is Wheeler’s dominance in October. He owns a 2.78 ERA in six playoff starts, spanning 35 2/3 innings, and that gives me supreme confidence that we’ll see very few runs on the Miami side of things. It’s also worth noting that in just one of those six starts has more than seven runs been scored.

The Under is a wise play here if you don’t want to pay up for the Phillies. While Philadelphia's offense has been loaded with power, posting better than a .200 ISO in the second half, it possesses a rather tame 108 wRC+ against lefties this season with Rhys Hoskins missing. It’s not a bad mark, but it’s some semblance of hope that the above-average Luzardo can keep this game Under the total.

Over at DraftKings, 83% of the bets and 82% of the handle is on the Phillies, while 64% of the bets on the total have come in on the Over with 60% of the handle heading that way as well.

Trend to know

The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the moneyline in 65 of their last 105 games (+11.25 Units / 7% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Phillies

Marlins vs Phillies game info

Starting pitchers

Jesus Luzardo (10-9, 3.63 ERA): The lefty is wrapping up a complicated month of September which saw him allow six runs on 10 hits and four walks a few weeks ago — but also saw him close with a 10-strikeout display against the Mets.

Zack Wheeler (13-6, 3.61 ERA): The flamethrower is back to dominate another postseason, and he rides into October with a 3.17 ERA in his final 15 starts of the season. He owns a 3.00 ERA in three starts vs. the Marlins this year but has yet to earn a win against the Fish.