Mavericks’ NBA draft lottery odds to land Victor Wembanyama

Out of the playoffs for the first time since Luka Doncic’s rookie year, the Mavericks and their fans have turned their attention to the May 16 draft lottery.

Forgive those who don’t remember the NBA’s exact formula for determining the order. Dallas hasn’t had a top-10 pick since acquiring Doncic for Trae Young and their 2019 first-rounder in 2018. Since then, the league has adjusted the odds for teams in contention for the No. 1 pick in an effort to prevent teams from excessive tanking.

It didn’t appear to deter the Mavericks, who were fined $750,000 for “conduct detrimental to the league” after resting players in the April 7 loss to the Chicago Bulls to boost their odds of keeping their 2023 first-round draft pick this summer.

Dallas finished the regular season with the 10th-worst record and no play-in tournament berth.

Mavericks’ chances to keep their pick

The order of picks for the June 22 draft holds massive implications for the Mavericks.

Remain at No. 10 — or receive unprecedented luck and move to the top four in the lottery for the first time in franchise history — and they’ll keep their first-round pick from conveying to the Knicks for the January 2019 Kristaps Porzingis trade. The pick would go to the Knicks in 2024, unless the Mavericks also end up with a top-10 pick next year.

Keeping this year’s pick is also a major asset if Dallas wants to make a trade rather than select a player in the draft.

If the Mavericks fall out of the top 10, the Knicks will enjoy an extra draft selection to complete the Porzingis deal and Dallas’ options for roster retooling will dwindle.

After the NBA completes the top-four drawing, the draft order from Nos. 5-14 follows the inverse record ranking of the remaining teams.

That leaves the Mavericks with a 65.9% chance of keeping the No. 10 pick (because they can’t move up to Nos. 5-9). They also have a chance to drop to No. 11 (19%), No. 12 (1.2%) or Nos. 13-14 (less than 1%).

Dallas fans should root hard against (and Knicks fans should root hard for) the Bulls, Thunder, Raptors and Pelicans’ chances to move into the top four and push the Mavericks down to No. 11 or below.

Here’s where the Mavericks’ lottery odds rank in the race for No. 1, which is expected to be French phenom Victor Wembanyama.

Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes

1. Detroit Pistons (17-65), 14%

2. Houston Rockets (22-60), 14%

3. San Antonio Spurs (22-60), 14%

4. Charlotte Hornets (27-55), 12.5%

5. Portland Trail Blazers (33-49), 10.5%

6. Orlando Magic (34-48), 9%

7. Indiana Pacers (35-47), 6.8%

8. Washington Wizards (35-47), 6.7%

9. Utah Jazz (37-45), 4.5%

10. Dallas Mavericks (38-44), 3%

11. Chicago Bulls (40-42), 1.8%

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (40-42), 1.7%

13. Toronto Raptors (41-41), 1%

14. New Orleans Pelicans (42-40), 0.5%

The NBA uses the lottery to choose the top four spots, so the Mavericks also have a slight chance to move up to No. 2 (3.3%), No. 3 (3.6%) or No. 4 (4%).