Melbourne Cup expert tips: Best bets and expert tips

News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes a look at the entire 10-race card on Melbourne Cup Day at Flemington.

BEST BET

GLINT OF SILVER (Race 6, No. 2)

Glint Of Silver is Group class on his day but drops back to a Benchmark 90 race restricted to grey horses. He could be too good here.

VALUE BET

CLIMBING STAR (Race 9, No. 12)

Climbing Star chased well at Caulfield and wasn’t far away here two starts back. She has a tricky gate but is due a win.

EARLY QUADDIE

2, 3, 5, 7/1, 4, 7, 9/3, 5, 10, 12/2, 3, 4

$100 flexi for 52 per cent

BIG6

3, 5, 10, 12/2, 3, 4/1, 3, 5/1, 3, 13, 14/1, 2, 12/7, 12, 16

$100 flexi for 7.7 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 7: 1, 3, 5

Race 8: 1, 3, 13, 14

Race 9: 1, 2, 12

Race 10: 7, 12, 16

$100 flexi for 93 per cent

RACE 1: 10:45AM GROUP 3 DARLEY MARIBYRNONG PLATE (1000m)

Early start to Melbourne Cup Day but BLUE STRATUM (4) has trialled well and looks a real professional. ADMITTED (1) has the benefit of race experience after a strong Bendigo debut win. DUBLIN DOWN (2) has chased well at both runs to date and can improve further. ODINSON (7) has also impressed at the jumpouts.

SUGGESTED BET: Small bet on Blue Stratum to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Admitted $5 – $3.90.

RACE 2: 11:20AM LISTED FURPHY PLATE (1800m)

SIBAAQ (2) has raced consistently and gets his chance to break through dropping back to 1800m here. FORGOT YOU (4) ran on well at The Valley and ran well over this trip three runs back. MR MAESTRO (7) will be greatly improved after a pleasing first-up run. POUNDING (1) drops back in class here and will be thereabouts.

SUGGESTED BET: Sibaaq to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Forgot You $4 – $3.40.

RACE 3: 12:00PM LISTED TAB TROPHY (1800m)

The winner of this race is usually in for a good autumn campaign. WARMONGER (7) ran on well to score at Mornington and will be much better suited on the bigger Flemington track. BINOTTO (3) was solid at The Valley and will enjoy 1800m here. AZTEC STATE (2) was a shade unlucky at Caulfield and is talented. BIG SWAN (5) scored on debut at Sale and can improve.

SUGGESTED BET: Warmonger to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Warmonger $4.80 – $3.80.

RACE 4: 12:40PM THE SCHWEPPERVESCENCE PLATE (1000m)

Tricky 1000m contest but JEWEL BAY (4) is consistent and impressed last time out at Cranbourne. REVALENE (9) was a shade unlucky at The Valley and is worth thought again. HOLY RACKET (7) was solid again over this trip last time and should go well. BARBER (1) is a talented colt dropping in class for this.

SUGGESTED BET: Jewel Bay each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Revalene $5 – $4.60.

RACE 5: 1:20PM THE MACCA’S RUN (2800m)

GARACHICO (10) has steadily worked up to peak fitness and should handle the rise to 2800m in this. KING’S CROSSING (5) got the money at Geelong and there’s no reason he can’t fire again. MR WATERVILLE (3) wasn’t far away in the Geelong Cup and is a winner up to 3420m. INSULATION (12) is a promising stayer that could measure up.

SUGGESTED BET: Garachico each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Supagirl $7 – $4.20.

RACE 6: 1:55PM MSS SECURITY SUBZERO HANDICAP (1400m)

GLINT OF SILVER (2) struggled at Newcastle last time but he drops sharply in class and he was a Group 2 winner in Melbourne in the autumn. PRINCE JOFRA (3) got home in Adelaide last time out and likes 1400m. BERKSHIRE BREEZE (4) could be suited over further but has the ability to go well fresh. LIKA SWIFT (11) jumps in class but is worth including in exotics.

SUGGESTED BET: Glint Of Silver to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Love Tap $8 – $6.

RACE 7: 3:00PM GROUP 1 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP (3200m)

WITHOUT A FIGHT (3) was too strong in the Caulfield Cup and will have his preferred firm conditions for his second crack at the Melbourne Cup. VAUBAN (5) has had a flawless preparation in Melbourne and should have every chance. GOLD TRIP (1) is up in weight on last year but is going better than ever. BREAKUP (4) will be fitter for his Caulfield Cup run and has good 3200m form in Japan.

SUGGESTED BET: Without A Fight to win/box trifecta 1, 3, 4, 5, 9.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Absurde $21 - $12.

RACE 8: 3:50PM LISTED HOWDEN DESIRABLE STAKES (1400m)

One of the harder races of the day but BATRANA (14) was an easy winner at Ballarat last start and could handle the jump in class. KIMOCHI (3) will find this easier than the Group 1 Flight Stakes in Sydney and can improve. COMMEMORATIVE (13) was narrowly beaten at Randwick first-up and will be fitter. AZULA (1) will be fitter for her first-up run at Group 2 level.

SUGGESTED BET: Batrana each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Kimochi $4 – $3.50.

RACE 9: 4:35PM GROUP 3 HONG KONG JOCKEY CLUB STAKES (1400m)

CLIMBING STAR (12) drops back to mares’ grade after another good effort at Caulfield. She’ll be thereabouts. MADAME POMMERY (1) didn’t have the best of luck at Caulfield and is down in class. SKEW WIFF (2) went well at her Australian debut at Caulfield and will be better for it. WOLLOMBI (6) wasn’t far away at Caulfield and loves 1400m.

SUGGESTED BET: Climbing Star each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Skew Wiff $9 – $6.50.

RACE 10: 5:15PM PARAMOUNT+ TROPHY (1400m)

DUBAI POET (7) has gone well at all his Australian runs and should have every chance from barrier four. LAFARGUE (12) bolted in at Geelong last time and should go well again here. CHORLTON LANE (16) doesn’t run bad races and should be prominent here. INVER PARK (2) will find this easier than Group 3 races.

SUGGESTED BET: Dubai Poet to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Robusto $9.50 – $6.50.