Horse racing tips: Ballarat Cup best bets, preview, Early Oil

News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Ballarat Cup meeting.

BEST BET

DETONATOR JACK (Race 10, No. 1)

Exciting galloper that made an outstanding return to racing on Melbourne Cup Day. Wet or dry, he can win again.

VALUE BET

Looked a smart type blitzing her rivals on debut. She’s up in class but tipping she’ll measure up at Ballarat.

EARLY QUADDIE

1, 3, 7, 11/3, 4, 8, 16 /1, 2, 3, 17/2, 6, 12, 15

$100 flexi for 39.06 per cent

BIG6

1, 2, 3, 17/2, 6, 12, 15/1, 2, 10, 11/3, 5/3, 8, 10, 12/1

$100 flexi for 19.53 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 1, 2, 10, 11

Race 7: 3, 5, 6, 13

Race 8: 3, 8, 10, 12

Race 9: 1

$100 flexi for 156 per cent

RACE 1 (12:10PM): RITCHIES IGA MARES BM78 HANDICAP (1200m)

A wide-open mares’ contest starts a big day’s racing at Ballarat. Going with FOR REAL LIFE (9) to start the day on a good note for punters. She’s unbeaten at Ballarat and can handle the rise in class on Saturday. BELLE ET RICHE (10) resumes on Saturday but she has a stack of ability and will be competitive fresh. HYPOTHETICAL (6) is another that will be thereabouts if she repeats her excellent efforts at Geelong and Flemington. Canberra mare DEVIL’S TRIANGLE (7) races well on soft ground and can improve.

SUGGESTED BET: FOR REAL LIFE each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Hypothetical $3.20 – $2.90

RACE 2 (12:40PM): JOHN JENS VOBIS GOLD EUREKA STOCKADE (1400m)

DEEKAY (3) led throughout in a dominant win at Bendigo on Bendigo Cup Day and the gelding can go on with it in the small field at Ballarat. STREET DELIGHT (6) chased Deekay at Bendigo and should run well again. KINGS CONSORT (1) did his best work late at Flemington last time out and can improve. EL PADRINO (2) comes out of the same race as Kings Consort and will appreciate the class drop.

SUGGESTED BET: DEEKAY to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: El Padrino $6 – $4.60.

RACE 3 (1:10PM): MAGIC MILLIONS BALLARAT 2YO CLASSIC (1000m)

Tough two-year-old race for $250,000 but going with the Maher and Eustace-trained TABATA SET (13) to improve off her promising debut effort at Flemington. DUBUENKO (7) did her best work late at odds at Flemington and could appreciate getting back around a bend. SUNSOURCE (3) looks the best of the unraced brigade on his Cranbourne jumpouts. GITALONG (1) hasn’t been disgraced in two Sydney runs and should run well again.

SUGGESTED BET: TABATA SET each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Gitalong $13 – $9.50.

RACE 4 (1:45PM): A GRADE SHEDS BM70 HANDICAP (1100m)

Another difficult race for punts but SCREWED DOWN (8) got home hard to score at Bendigo last time out in the latest run of a consistent campaign. No reason he can’t perform well again. LA CARESSE (3) tried hard in heavy ground at Moe last time but drops back to BM70 level for this and loves soft ground. ALL ABOUT EVE (16) charged home to win on this track first-up and will be fitter. NAJEM SUHAIL (4) ran another bold race at Flemington and is worth including again.

SUGGESTED BET: SCREWED DOWN each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Ice Pick Nick $5.50 – $4.

RACE 5 (2:20PM): ECYCLE SOLUTIONS MCKELLAR MILE (1600m)

Plenty of chances here but happy to stick with OUR REDENTE (17). He was a terrific winner at Pakenham last time and can continue to rise through the grades. MAXIMUS PRIME (1) is consistent and wasn’t beaten far in a $500,000 race at Flemington on Oaks Day. COURT DEEP (3) raced on the speed before scoring first-up and that form stood up at Sandown on Wednesday. UNANIMOUS (2) was most unlucky not to win at Flemington and could bounce back here.

SUGGESTED BET: OUR REDENTE to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Beltoro $10 – $8.50.

RACE 6 (3PM): GLOBAL TURF BM84 HANDICAP (2000m)

Another wide-open contest for punters to decipher. Going with WERTHEIMER (15) after his solid effort in the Bendigo Cup behind subsequent Melbourne Cup placegetter High Emocean. He drops in distance but is also down in class. ROUSSEAU (2) didn’t quite see out the 2200m of the Kyneton Cup but loves 2000m and can improve. WYCLIF (6) ran on well under 62kg at Flemington and drops 3.5kg for this. PARISIAN DANCER (12) was another that boxed on well at Flemington and always performs on her home track.

SUGGESTED BET: WERTHEIMER each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Right You Are $5 – $4.60.

RACE 7 (3:40PM): MAGIC MILLIONS 3YO & 4YO CLASSIC (1100m)

PINK CASHMERE (10) steps up in class for this but she looked a talented type when easily disposing of her opposition on debut. She can measure up to this. ELTEECEE (2) was outgunned at Sale last time but scored easily in soft ground at The Valley before that. DIRECT (1) is racing consistently since being gelded and is worth including again. A LITTLE DEEP (11) was a class above lower opposition on debut and is a filly of promise.

SUGGESTED BET:

TAB MARKET MOVER: A Little Deep $15 – $8.

RACE 8 (4:20PM): SPORTSBET BALLARAT CUP (2000m)

Hard to go past ATISHU (3) after her terrific win in the Matriarch Stakes, which followed a strong performance at Group 1 level. She’s unbeaten at 2000m and wet or dry ground won’t worry her. GRANDSLAM (5) wasn’t disgraced under 60kg first-up and will be much fitter for that. DARK DREAM (6) ran on well late when off a five-week break at Bendigo and will enjoy a 5.5kg weight drop. LORD VLADIVOSTOK (13) struck trouble at Flemington on Cup Day and can improve with more luck this time.

SUGGESTED BET: ATISHU to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Atishu $8 – $3.90

RACE 9 (5PM): HERTZ TONKS PLATE (1200m)

RAINBIEL (12) has a tricky gate but has good early speed to overcome it and dropping to 53kg will make her harder to run down this time. NOT TO BE MIST (8) wasn’t far away at Flemington last time but could be suited dropping back to 1200m for this while he also drops 4kg. WICKLOW TOWN (3) was OK again at Ararat last time and has steadily built fitness in three runs back from a long spell. He could be ready to fire now. SNAPPER (10) showed plenty of fight to score down the straight at Flemington and should be in this for a long way.

SUGGESTED BET: RAINBIEL each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: King Of Hastings $15 – $9.50.

RACE 10 (5:40PM): THE HAYMARKET BM84 HANDICAP (1400m)

Expecting DETONATOR JACK (1) to post another win in the last at Ballarat. He overcame difficulty to win first-up after showing the turn of foot of a quality galloper. His only defeat was at Group 1 level in the autumn and he should again be too classy. NIGHT PASSAGE (14) was freshened after a good Sandown run and he races best over 1400m. LINAS LEGEND (17) did his best work late when resuming at Flemington and will be suited over this longer trip. MUNHAMEK (8) has done nothing wrong in his three Australian runs and should go well again.

SUGGESTED BET: DETONATOR JACK to win

TAB MARKET MOVER: Detonator Jack $5.50 – $3.30.