2023 Caulfield Cup day preview, tips, best bets

News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Caulfield Cup meeting.

BEST BET

CLIMBING STAR (Race 8, No.11)

Climbing Star had no luck but was only beaten two lengths in a Group 2 race at Flemington but will find this easier. She’ll be hard to beat with even luck.

VALUE BET

KONASANA (Race 3, No.5)

Konasana showed plenty of fight when scoring over 1600m at The Valley but was excellent over 1800m two runs back. She’ll handle the 2000m without a worry.

EARLY QUADDIE

1, 4, 5, 12/2, 3, 4, 7/2, 3, 5, 8/1, 4

$100 flexi for 78 per cent

BIG6

2, 3, 5, 8/1, 4/2, 4, 5, 7/3, 10, 11/1, 2, 3, 6/2, 4, 5

$100 flexi for 8.6 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 7: 2, 4, 5, 7

Race 8: 3, 10, 11

Race 9: 1, 2, 3, 6

Race 10: 2, 4, 5

$100 flexi for 69 per cent

RACE 1: 12:15PM LAMARO’S HOTEL PLATE (1400m)

Interesting start to the Caulfield meeting, which will be held on good ground throughout the day. BRAVE MEAD (2) was solid behind Steparty first-up and not far away again at The Valley last time. That form will be good enough for this. REPRISAL (5) scored well first-up and will be fitter. KAIZAD (3) was impressive in Sydney last start and could measure up. THE INSTRUCTOR (1) is consistent and should go well again.

SUGGESTED BET: Brave Mead to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Kaizad $4.80 – $4.20.

RACE 2: 12:50PM GROUP 3 NEDS CLASSIC (2000m)

Hard to past RIFF ROCKET (2) after his scintillating win at Flemington last time. Stepping up to 2000m won’t worry him and he could confirm Derby favouritism with another win. GOLD BULLION (4) is a developing type that fought on well to score at Flemington and won’t be far away. GATES (6) steps up in class here but is showing potential. SUNSOURCE (1) did his best work late at Flemington and the 2000m will suit him.

SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 2, 4, 6.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Gold Bullion $7 – $6

RACE 3: 1:25PM GROUP 3 SCHWEPPES ETHEREAL STAKES (2000m)

Think this race is more open than the market suggests. KONASANA (5) showed plenty of fight to score when dropping in trip at The Valley and will be suited at 2000m. TROPICAL SQUALL (1) is the class of the field as the only Group 1 winner and will be the hardest to beat. AUTUMN ANGEL (4) went well behind the subsequent Caulfield Guineas winner Griff in the Stutt Stakes and is worth thought. EVERLASTING KISS (12) is a stayer that will be grinding home late.

SUGGESTED BET: Konasana each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Tropical Squall $2.30 – $1.90.

RACE 4: 2:00PM LISTED STOW STORAGE GOTHIC STAKES (1200m)

Tricky race despite the field of 10 runners. PRINZERRO (4) didn’t have the best of luck and didn’t finish it off in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude but he’s back to 1200m and down in grade. Expect improvement. DARK HALO (7) was a dominant debut winner and could measure up. DON CORLEONE (2) went well down the straight last time should go well. TREASURWAY (3) gives a start in her races but drops in class and another 100m will help her.

SUGGESTED BET: Prinzerro each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Facile $3.80 – $3.20.

RACE 5: 2:35PM GROUP 2 MANHARI METALS THOUSAND GUINEAS PRELUDE (1400m)

This is the hardest race of the day but INHIBITIONS (8) could be well suited here. She’s raced consistently and getting to 1400m here could get back to winning ways from the perfect draw. BOSSY NIC (2) did her best work late first-up and will be fitter. COUER VOLANTE (3) has drawn wide but was an impressive first-up winner and will be fitter. OZ EMPRESS (5) led and kept finding on this track last time and should be hard to run down again.

SUGGESTED BET: Inhibitions to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Coeur Volante $8 – $5.50.

RACE 6: 3:15PM GROUP 2 THE MCCAFE SPRINT (1000m)

The 1000m and handicap conditions will be perfect for GENERAL BEAU (4), who runs his best races at Caulfield and will carry only 53kg. The likely firm track will suit as well. LOFTY STRIKE (1) is a talented sprinter that hasn’t raced at 1000m but will be hard to hold out. GENERATION (2) found Group 1 company too strong at The Valley but is better suited at this level. SPACEWALK (6) is going well in Sydney and should be thereabouts.

SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 2, 4, 6.

TAB MARKET MOVER: General Beau $13 – $7.50.

RACE 7: 3:50PM GROUP 2 SHARP EIT TRISTARC STAKES (1400m)

Sticking with the form out of the Blazer Stakes when assessing this race. WROTE TO ARATAKI (5) did a terrific job when racing wide before going down by a half-length. She’ll be harder to beat with a softer run. SHUFFLE DANCER (7) wasn’t far away at Flemington ad will be fitter for two runs back. WALTZ ON BY (7) also raced wide at Flemington but stuck to her task well and has drawn for an easier run at Caulfield. Kiwi mare SKEW WIFF (2) was a Group 1 winner in her homeland at her last outing and could measure up.

SUGGESTED BET: Wrote to Arataki to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: C’est Magique $3.70 – $3.10.

RACE 8: 4:30PM GROUP 3 NEDS MOONGA STAKES (1400m)

Not the strongest Group 3 race we’ll ever see but CLIMBING STAR (11) can beat the males. She had no luck at Flemington when badly held up but was only beaten two lengths and Craig Williams goes aboard. NUNTHORPE (10) has won well at her last two outings and should be in this for a long way. BUFFALO RIVER (3) led and faded in windy conditions last Saturday but is racing well enough. ALTIVO (8) steps up to Group 3 level but is talented and will be fitter for two runs in.

SUGGESTED BET: Climbing Star to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Nunthorpe $4.60 – $3.70.

RACE 9: 5:15PM GROUP 1 CARLTON DRAUGHT CAULFIELD CUP (2400m)

Sticking around the favourites in this year’s Caulfield Cup. BREAK-UP (3) has good form in the extremely tough Japanese arena and should have every chance to prove his quality from barrier five. WITHOUT A FIGHT (2) has had an unusual Caulfield Cup preparation but is a quality performer that will be thereabouts. GOLD TRIP (1) blitzed his rivals in the Turnbull Stakes and must be respected. WEST WIND BLOWS (6) will be much better for his strong Turnbull Stakes second.

SUGGESTED BET: Breakup to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Gold Trip $6 – $5.

RACE 10: 5:50PM LISTED CARLTON DRAUGHT ALINGHI STAKES (1100m)

Tricky finish to the Caulfield Cup meeting but Jamie Kah might be able to end the day on a high on LITTLE MISS KUBI (4). The Cliff Brown-trained mare ran on hard at The Valley and was a stakes winner over 1100m in the autumn. BOUND FOR HOME (2) will tackle this race fresh and has the talent to show up. VIVIANE (5) is racing in great form and must be considered. AITCH TWO OH (1) is consistent and will be fitter for her first-up run.

SUGGESTED BET: Little Miss Kubi

TAB MARKET MOVER: Viviane $4.40 – $2.80.