Mets-Cardinals prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, August 19

The New York Mets look to make it three in a row against the St. Louis Cardinals as these two disappointing NL powers continue their four-game set on Saturday night. First pitch from Busch Stadium is set for 7:15 p.m. ET. New York will send de-facto ace Kodai Senga (9-6, 3.30 ERA) to the mound against Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas (6-8. 4.27).

This one is nearly a pick ‘em on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Mets at -112 and St. Louis at -108. The run total is set at 8.5.

Mets-Cardinals picks: Saturday, August 19th

Injury report

Mets

Out: INF Mark Vientos (wrist), OF Starling Marte (groin), INF Luis Guillorme (calf)

Cardinals

Out: Lars Nootbaar (abdomen), 2B Nolan Gorman (back), OF Dylan Carlson (oblique), SP/RP Jake Woodford (shoulder), UTIL Brendan Donovan (elbow), RP Ryan Helsley (forearm)

Starting pitchers

Kodai Senga vs. Miles Mikolas

While the rest of New York’s rotation was dismantled around him, Senga has come into his own as his first Major League season has progressed. The righty has posted a 2.85 ERA with 48 strikeouts in 41 innings in seven starts since July 1, His command remains an issue — and he’s still susceptible to some crooked numbers when he loses the strike zone — but his “ghost fork” forkball has been just about unhittable this year, with a .132 BA against and a comical 58.4% whiff rate. His feel for the fork can come and go, but when it’s on, Senga has shown legit frontline upside.

Mikolas has been his typically sturdy self for St. Louis of late, not striking out very many batters but finding a way to go deep into games and (usually) giving the Cardinals a fighting chance in every game he starts. The 34-year-old has pitched to a 3.64 ERA in eight starts dating back to July 8, going at least six innings in six of them.

Over/Under pick

The first two games of this series have seen totals of six and eight, and I’m backing the under yet again on Saturday. The Cardinals offense has totally disappeared in this series, and Senga is the kind of righty that St. Louis has had trouble with all year — if he’s got the ghost fork working, he should be in for a big day. That means it’ll be up to the Mets to do the majority of the work here, and I just don’t trust them to put up a big number in this spot.

Pick: Under 8.5

Moneyline pick

New York has the better starting pitcher on the mound and has been playing better baseball of late, so why not ride with them at essentially even odds?