Mets-Royals prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, August 3

Two days after pulling the cord at the trade deadline, the New York Mets (50-57) find themselves staring down the barrel of a sweep at the hands of the lowly Kansas City Royals (34-75). New York will hope to salvage the final game of this three-game series at Kauffman Stadium, with first pitch of Thursday’s finale set for 2:10 p.m. ET. Righty Carlos Carrasco (3-5, 6.40 ERA) gets the ball for the visitors, while the Royals start Brady Singer (6-8, 5.46).

K.C. enters as narrow -118 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Mets at -102. The run total is set at 9.5.

Mets-Royals picks: Thursday, August 3

Injury report

Mets

Day-to-day: OF Brandon Nimmo (quad), OF Starling Marte (migraines)
Out: 2B Luis Guillorme (calf)

Royals

Out: SP Daniel Lynch IV (shoulder), 1B Nick Pratto (groin)

Starting pitchers

Carlos Carrasco vs. Brady Singer

It was a brutal end to July for Carrasco, who started the month with eight shutout innings against the Diamondbacks ... and then allowed 17 runs (15 earned) over his next 9.1 frames. He was absolutely shelled by the Washington Nationals last weekend, giving up eight runs (six earned) on eight hits in just 2.1 innings. His changeup and slider remain effective enough, but hitters are absolutely teeing off on his fastball to the tune of a .366 BA and .656 SLG.

Singer got off to a disastrous start to 2023, but he’s been slowly getting better as the year’s gone on, with a 3.92 ERA across his last 11 starts dating back to May 27. The righty’s been downright great over his last two outings, allowing four runs over 11 innings with a whopping 19 strikeouts against the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins. Singer is basically a two-pitch pitcher, with a sinker and a slider, and when he’s got the feel for the latter he can be very effective. (When he doesn’t, though, look out.)

Over/Under pick

Carrasco could clear this over all by himself, but the Royals are still a mediocre lineup (the unconscious Bobby Witt Jr. excepted, of course) and Singer is in a really good groove right now. The Mets are running out outfields featuring Rafael Ortega and Danny Mendick right now, and the righty should have no trouble putting together yet another solid outing and keeping the total low enough.

Pick: Under 9.5

Moneyline pick

Carrasco has just been so, so bad lately, and with the Royals showing signs of life at the plate it’s hard to feel like they shouldn’t be more than a slight favorite in this spot. Unless Singer implodes, I think K.C. has a good shot at a sweep here — the reality is that they’re the more motivated of these two teams at this point.