Mets-Diamondbacks prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, July 6

After Francisco Alvarez delivered a two-out, ninth-inning, go-ahead homer last night, the New York Mets hope to carry that momentum to a series win against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday. First pitch of the rubber match of this three-game set is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. New York will send Carlos Carrasco (2-3, 5.94 ERA) to the mound while the D-backs counter with righty Ryne Nelson (5-4, 4.67).

Arizona enters as -140 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Mets at +120. The run total is set at 10.

Mets-Diamondbacks picks: Thursday, July 6

Injury report

Mets

Out: SP Jose Quintana (ribs)

Diamondbacks

Day to day: 2B Ketel Marte (back)
Out: SP Merrill Kelly (calf), RP Mark Melancon (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Carlos Carrasco vs. Ryne Nelson

Carrasco has had much of his 2023 derailed by injury, but after he seemed to have turned a corner in May, he’s regressed badly in June. Carrasco’s ERA was 6.23 across five starts last month, with an equally ugly 1.85 WHIP — in large part thanks to a walk rate that ranks in the bottom 10 percent of all starters. His changeup and slider have produced for him, but his fastball remains a huge liability with a .338 average and .662 slugging percentage against. It’s a lot of free passes and a lot of hard contact right now, which is a big part of the reason why he hasn’t completed a full six innings since May.

Nelson, by contrast, is trending in the opposite direction, with just two earned runs allowed on six hits across 14.1 innings over his last two starts. It’s a stark contrast to the 5.31 ERA he held prior to this recent run, and it’s largely been due to the emergence of his changeup. Nelson throws his fastball almost 55% of the time, but he’s been in search of a secondary pitch that can keep batters off his heater. The change carries a .171 average against and a 30.1% whiff rate entering play on Thursday.

Over/Under pick

These pitchers’ season-long numbers — and respective bullpen issues — would suggest that a number this high is more than fair, but I’m backing the under tonight, largely due to Nelson’s recent improvement. The righty has been a totally different pitcher of late, and I think he can take advantage of a Mets offense that’s just 17th in baseball against righties since the start of June. That puts a lot of pressure on the D-backs lineup to hit this over, and for as shaky as Carrasco (and New York’s relievers) have been, 10 runs feels like a lot.

Pick: Under 10

Moneyline pick

I trust Nelson far more than I trust Carrasco right now, and New York’s tendency to blow hot-and-cold at the plate doesn’t help matters. Arizona has the firepower to jump out to an early lead here, and I think their starter will do enough to make it hold up.