Mets vs. Marlins prediction and odds for Saturday, April 1 (Walk before you can run)

The New York Mets and Miami Marlins have been busy in the first weekend of the MLB season. While a lot of teams got yesterday off, they were in action down in South Florida and it was the Marlins who took a 2-1 win behind 5.2 scoreless from Jesus Luzardo. 

Today, Edward Cabrera will take the hill for Miami at home and he’ll be opposed by Tylor Megill. Justin Verlander’s injury has shaken up the Mets rotation, so Megill gets the ball in Game 3. He was expected to be the Opening Day starter for Triple-A Syracuse. 

Let’s check out the odds for this matchup in the NL East and see who takes the upperhand in Game 3 of this four-gamer. 

The 27-year-old Megill got a shot in the rotation in each of the last two seasons. Last year, he made nine starts and had 15 appearances, but finished with a 5.13 ERA with 51 strikeouts in 47.1 innings.

Last year, Cabrera went 6-4 in his age 24 season with a 3.01 ERA, but that came along with a 4.59 FIP. Cabrera had a good whiff rate, 86th percentile, and a 69th percentile strikeout rate. He doesn’t get hit hard much, but his walk rate is far too high.

It was in the bottom 10% of the league, and in a year where baserunning is up with the pitch clock and bigger bases, that is going to hurt him much more. 

The top of the New York order needs to draw a walk and then run. Stolen bases are much easier this year and Starling Marte can easily end up with 30.

We saw a 5-3 Mets win on Opening Day and a 2-1 Marlins win the next. Not exactly offensive explosions, but Starling Marte and Pete Alonso are both hitting the ball well and that makes the Mets lineup go.

I think they’ll draw walks against Cabrera and be able to make him pay for those free passes. Plus, Megill doesn’t inspire much confidence on the mound for New York fans. 

Pick: Over 8 (-104)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change