Mets vs. Padres odds, prediction, line, start time: 2023 MLB picks, April 12 best bets from top model
The New York Mets and San Diego Padres both look like NL pennant contenders after the Padres won 89 games and made it to the NLCS a season ago. Meanwhile, the Mets won 101 games but exited the MLB playoffs in the first round. It was the Padres who eliminated the Mets and now New York will be looking to exact a small measure of revenge by winning a regular-season series on Wednesday. The Mets (6-6) won Game 1 5-0, but the Padres (7-5) prevailed in Game 2 with a 4-2 win to even the series.
Wednesday's rubber match is slated to begin at 1:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field in New York. The Mets are the -115 favorites on the money line (risk $115 to win $100) in the latest Mets vs. Padres odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The Padres are listed as -105 underdogs, and the over/under for total runs scored is 8.5. Before you make any Padres vs. Mets picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons, and it finished the 2022 MLB season on a 20-14 roll. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Mets vs. Padres and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Padres vs. Mets:
- Mets vs. Padres money line: Mets -115, Padres -105
- Mets vs. Padres over/under: 8.5 runs
- Mets vs. Padres run line: Mets -1.5 (+170)
- NYM: The Mets are 12-5 SU in their last 17 home games
- SDP: The Padres are 5-1 against the run line on the road this season
Featured Game| New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
Why you should back the Mets
New York has been a little disappointing offensively thus far, ranking 12th in the National League in runs scored with 46. However, Pete Alonso's power has helped keep the Mets afloat throughout the season, as he's belted five home runs already while nobody else on the team has more than one.
The Mets will send Tylor Megill to the mound on Wednesday and he's off a solid start with a 2-0 record and a 1.64 ERA with 10 strikeouts over 11 innings of work. Megill had a 5.13 ERA a season ago, but a 3.77 FIP indicated that he may have been a victim of bad luck and the Mets are certainly hopeful that he can keep continue to build off a solid start.
Why you should back the Padres
The Padres will counter with Blake Snell, who is 0-1 with a 7.88 ERA after a pair of disappointing starts. However, the 2018 AL Cy Young award was dominant at times in 2022, posting a 3.38 ERA and striking out 171 batters over 128 innings. He's generating whiff rates of 55% or higher with all three of his offspeed offerings and his fastball spin rate, velocity and extension are all in the top 25% for pitchers this year.
Offensively, offseason signing Xander Bogaerts appears to be panning out, as he's posted a 1.093 OPS with four home runs and 10 RBI in his first 12 games. San Diego ranks third in the NL with 16 home runs, fourth in doubles (24) and fifth in runs scored (54). With the wind forecasted to howl out to right field at 14 mph on Wednesday, expect San Diego's power to be a major factor.
How to make Padres vs. Mets picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the run total, projecting both starting pitchers to record over five strikeouts. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.
