Michigan State vs. Wisconsin prediction: College basketball odds, best bets for Friday

The Spartans will hope for a split in their regular season series against the No. 13 Badgers when they visit the Kohl Center on Friday night.

Michigan State enters the contest on a three-game winning streak, while Wisconsin has won two straight games and eight of its last nine.

After opening as 3.5-point underdogs, the Spartans have drawn some interest in the market, pushing the number down to 2.5.

However, it’s the total that’s caught my attention, given the opening number of 138.5. That number seems a bit high for a conference matchup between two slower-paced teams in Division 1.

According to Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted tempo metric (against an average Division 1 team), the Spartans rank 278th with 66 possessions per 40 minutes.

Although that number is up from last season’s mark (64.7 possessions per 40 minutes), the reality is that, on average, college teams are playing much faster this season.

Thus, it’s fair to say that the Spartans remain a bit old-fashioned in their approach.

After debuting as the No. 4 team in the preseason AP Top 25, the Spartans dropped out of the rankings after three weeks.

However, despite a 12-7 overall record and a 4-4 mark in conference play, Pomeroy’s adjusted efficiency metric remains bullish on Sparty. Michigan State ranks 16th with a +21.02 value.

Per TeamRankings, the Spartans have been a bit unfortunate this season, ranking 345th with a -2.3 luck value.

It would certainly help if the Spartans utilized their perimeter shooting to create more margin in their games. Michigan State ranks 64th in 3-point shooting percentage (36.2%) but only 290th in 3-point attempts with 18.9 per game.

If Izzo could somehow give his players more of a green light from the perimeter, I think the Spartans would start to realize some of their potential.

Our Wisconsin breakdown will follow the same logic, given the striking similarities between the two teams. The Badgers play even slower, ranking 326th in adjusted tempo with 64.7 possessions per 40 minutes.

That number is actually an improvement from last season when the Badgers ranked 337th with 63.6 possessions.

If we assess their perimeter game, the Badgers are four spots behind Michigan State in 3-point shooting percentage at 36.2%.

Yet, despite being a decent perimeter shooting team like the Spartans, the Badgers only average 18.9 3-point attempts per game while making 6.8 3-point field goals.

However, Wisconsin has been the more fortunate of the two teams, evidenced by a +1.5 luck value.

Although Pomeroy has the Badgers sixth in his adjusted offensive efficiency metric, it’s worth noting that Wisconsin ranks 345th with an average offensive possession of 19.3 seconds.

Defensively, the Badgers can guard the opposition while limiting their chances at the free-throw line. Wisconsin ranks 64th in opponent free throw attempts with 16.5 per game.

In their earlier meeting, Michigan State attempted just seven free throw attempts.

If you’re an under bettor, the last thing you want is the game clock turned off with free trips to the charity stripe.

Based on our analysis, these teams are almost spitting images of one another, and the similarities likely date beyond this season.

That familiarity could explain why their last ten meetings have generally been lower-scoring affairs, as the total is 6-3-1 (+2.33 units) to the under.

However, there’s another conference angle that’s even more profitable.

According to our Action Labs database, Big Ten Conference games involving either Wisconsin or Michigan State that were bet down after opening with a total between 130 and 138.5 points are a whopping 76-44-2 to the under for 26.33 units.