Michigan vs. Bowling Green: Odds, predictions, props and best bets
Michigan has opened their season with two lopsided victories over East Carolina and UNLV. They’ve outscored their opponents by a combined 65-10 through the first two weeks. If you were expecting this to be the week the Wolverines were going to be challenged, think again. Michigan plays host to Bowling Green (1-1) out of the MAC and the Wolverines are massive home favorites.
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Until Michigan is given an incentive to schedule real competition in non-conference play or is somehow forced to do so, it appears they have no interest in swimming in those waters. After two blowouts to open the season for the Wolverines, it certainly feels likely that Bowling Green will be the next team thrown into the shark infested waters as chum. Thankfully for those of us who enjoy competitive football, Big Ten play begins next week. You know it’s bad when Rutgers will represent a significant step-up in competition level for Michigan.
Michigan has started the season by out-scoring their opponents by a combined score of 65-10. They are yet to give up more than seven points in a single game. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy has almost as many touchdown passes (5) as incompletions (7) through two games. Blake Corum is averaging over 6 yards per carry and has found the end zone four times. Roman Wilson has turned ten receptions into five touchdowns. The defense has been dominant. However, it’s hard to be overly impressed. The level of competition has been low, and Michigan is actually failing to meet expectations. They are 0-2 against the spread so far this season despite the lopsided margin of victory. Michigan will win this game, the only question is whether they reach a high enough margin to cover another huge spread.
After opening the season with a ten point loss at Liberty, the Bowling Green Falcons got in the win column in Week 2 with a win over Eastern Illinois. There’s not much to say about the Falcons here. They’re a slightly below average MAC team that has little to no chance of going into the Big House and winning the game. Michigan will shut down the run game, forcing the ball in the hands of former Missouri and Indiana transfer Connor Bazelak. Bazelak has struggled with turnovers his entire college career and his 3-3 TD-INT ratio to begin the season suggests that issue hasn’t been fixed.
The total for this game is in the 50s despite the spread being in the 40s. The math isn’t hard to figure out: oddsmakers aren’t expecting much scoring from Bowling Green in this one. They expect Michigan to carry the scoring in this one. For that reason, we’re leaning towards the under. Michigan has yet to eclipse 35 points this season. In the past, this was a team that bullied inferior opponents and ran up scores. That hasn’t been the case this season. Maybe Jim Harbaugh not being on the sidelines has something to do with that. We expect Michigan to win comfortably, Bowling Green to score very little, and the Wolverines to keep things vanilla before conference play begins. Both Michigan games have gone under the total so far this season.
All ten points Michigan has given up this season have come in the final three minutes of the fourth quarter. In other words, teams are simply not scoring against the Wolverines’ defense in non-garbage time. Michigan is yet to score more than seven points in a first quarter and have yet to score more than three touchdowns in a first half. It might be a sweat, but we don’t expect Bowling Green to score. Hopefully Michigan only has three or four first half touchdowns.
Score Prediction: Michigan 42, Bowling Green 3
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