Michigan vs. Penn State odds, spread, line: 2023 college football picks, Week 11 predictions by proven model
The No. 3 ranked Michigan Wolverines will look for their third consecutive win over the No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions when they meet in a Big Ten Conference East Division matchup on Saturday. The Wolverines (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten), who are 3-0 on the road, have gone 7-6 in games played at Beaver Stadium at University Park, Pa. The Nittany Lions (8-1, 5-1), who are 5-0 on their home field, have won two in a row since losing at Ohio State 20-12 on Oct. 21. Michigan leads the all-time series 16-10. Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh has been suspended for this matchup by the Big Ten amid the ongoing NCAA investigation of an alleged sign-stealing operation.
The game will kick off at noon ET. Michigan is averaging 40.7 points per game this season, fifth-best in FBS and tops in the Big Ten, while Penn State is averaging 40.2, sixth in FBS and second in the conference. The Wolverines are favored by 4.5 points in the latest Michigan vs. Penn State odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 45. Before making any Penn State vs. Michigan picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a stunning profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Michigan vs. Penn State and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine to see the model's CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for Penn State vs. Michigan:
- Michigan vs. Penn State spread: Michigan -4.5
- Michigan vs. Penn State over/under: 45 points
- Michigan vs. Penn State: Michigan -203, Penn State +168
- MICH: 3-0 ATS on the road this season
- PSU: The Nittany Lions have hit the first-half ML in 7 of last 10 games (+6.00 units)
- Michigan vs. Penn State picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Michigan vs. Penn State live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why Michigan can cover
Senior wide receiver Roman Wilson continues to impress as one of the top targets for quarterback JJ McCarthy. Wilson leads the Wolverines with 36 catches for 589 yards (16.4 average) and 10 touchdowns, including a long reception of 47 yards. He is coming off a season-high nine receptions for 143 yards (15.9 average), including a long of 35 yards, in the win over Purdue last Saturday. In the season opener against East Carolina on Sept. 2, he caught six passes for 78 yards (13 average) and three touchdowns.
On defense, senior defensive back Mike Sainristil is making a big impact. He is among the team's top tacklers with 21 stops, including 10 solo, with one sack for seven yards. He also has broken up four passes and intercepted three others, returning two of those for touchdowns. In the 49-0 win at Michigan State on Oct. 21, he picked off a pass and returned it 72 yards for a score. See which team to pick here.
Why Penn State can cover
Sophomore Drew Allar powers the Nittany Lions offense. He has completed 181 of 288 passes (62.8%) for 1,895 yards and 20 touchdowns with just one interception for a rating of 140.3. He has also carried 53 times for 100 yards (1.9 average) and three touchdowns. He became the first quarterback in Penn State history to throw for 10 or more touchdowns before throwing an interception in a season. In the season-opening win over West Virginia on Sept. 2, Allar became the first Penn State quarterback to throw for at least 300 yards in his first career start since Michael Robinson threw for 379 yards vs. Wisconsin in 2003.
Allar's top target has been junior KeAndre Lambert-Smith. He leads the team with 51 receptions for 645 yards (12.6 average) and four touchdowns. His best game was in the opener against West Virginia, when he caught four passes for 123 yards (30.8 average) and two touchdowns, including a long of 72 yards. He is coming off an eight-catch, 95-yard effort in last week's win at Maryland. See which team to pick here.
How to make Penn State vs. Michigan picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 53 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.
