Michigan vs. Penn State odds, spread, line: 2023 college football picks, Week 11 predictions from proven model
Two of the top teams in the Big Ten square off on Saturday when the third-ranked Michigan Wolverines battle the 10th-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pa. The Wolverines (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten), who are coming off a 41-13 win over Purdue last week, are looking to win their third consecutive Big Ten Conference East Division title. The Nittany Lions (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten), who have won two in a row since losing 20-12 at Ohio State on Oct. 21, are coming off a 51-15 victory at Maryland. Michigan won last year's meeting in Ann Arbor, Mich., 41-17.
Kickoff is set for noon ET. Michigan leads the all-time series 16-10, but the teams have split the last six matchups. The Wolverines are 4.5-point favorites in the latest Michigan vs. Penn State odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 45. Before making any Penn State vs. Michigan picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a stunning profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Michigan vs. Penn State and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine to see the model's CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for Penn State vs. Michigan:
- Michigan vs. Penn State spread: Michigan -4.5
- Michigan vs. Penn State over/under: 45 points
- Michigan vs. Penn State: Michigan -206, Penn State +170
- MICH: 3-0 ATS on the road this season
- PSU: The Nittany Lions have hit the first-half ML in 7 of last 10 games (+6.00 units)
- Michigan vs. Penn State picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Michigan vs. Penn State live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why Michigan can cover
The Wolverines are led by junior quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who has played in 34 career games with 22 starts, going 21-1. He has thrown for 2,134 yards and 18 touchdowns with three interceptions this season. He is second nationally in pass efficiency (188.7), and leads the Big Ten and is third nationally in completion percentage (75.7%) and yards per attempt (10.64 average). During his career, he has completed 398 of 587 passes (67.8%) for 5,369 yards with 45 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Senior running back Blake Corum powers the Wolverines' ground attack. He has carried 126 times for 649 yards (5.2 average) and 16 touchdowns, and has 10 receptions for 63 yards. The 2023 team captain was named to a number of watch lists for multiple 2023 national awards, including the Walter Camp Player of the Year, Maxwell Award, Doak Walker Award and Comeback Player of the Year Award. He is the 10th Michigan player to gain 3,000 yards in a career, and has carried the ball 542 times for 3,141 yards. His 47 rushing touchdowns are tied for second all-time at Michigan with Tyrone Wheatley. See which team to pick here.
Why Penn State can cover
Sophomore Drew Allar powers the Nittany Lions offense. He has completed 181 of 288 passes (62.8%) for 1,895 yards and 20 touchdowns with just one interception for a rating of 140.3. He has also carried 53 times for 100 yards (1.9 average) and three touchdowns. He became the first quarterback in Penn State history to throw for 10 or more touchdowns before throwing an interception in a season. In the season-opening win over West Virginia on Sept. 2, Allar became the first Penn State quarterback to throw for at least 300 yards in his first career start since Michael Robinson threw for 379 yards vs. Wisconsin in 2003.
Allar's top target has been junior KeAndre Lambert-Smith. He leads the team with 51 receptions for 645 yards (12.6 average) and four touchdowns. His best game was in the opener against West Virginia, when he caught four passes for 123 yards (30.8 average) and two touchdowns, including a long of 72 yards. He is coming off an eight-catch, 95-yard effort in last week's win at Maryland. See which team to pick here.
How to make Penn State vs. Michigan picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 53 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.
