Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Twins vs. Blue Jays Odds

Yesterday, the Minnesota Twins snapped a historic 18-game postseason losing streak with a 3-1 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays. This afternoon, they will play Game 2 of their American League Wild Card series, with a victory securing their first playoff series win since 2002. The Blue Jays will hand the ball to Jose Berrios as they look to extend their season for at least one more day. The Twins will counter with Sonny Gray.

Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Twins as -140 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 7.5 runs.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Toronto Blue Jays

Jose Berrios faces franchise that drafted him in Game 2

Though there is a “revenge” narrative floating around the internet ecosystem concerning Jose Berrios today, it is doubtful that even the most extreme levels of motivation will allow Berrios to pitch well on Wednesday. Berrios once again posted sub-par regular season results, finishing in the 34th percentile among qualified pitchers in xERA and the 36th percentile in barrel rate. In his last seven turns through the rotation to end the regular season, Berrios compiled a 4.53 ERA, 4.17 FIP, and 1.12 WHIP. He allowed at least four earned runs in four of those starts, with the only three exceptions being matchups against non-playoff offenses – the Boston Red Sox, Kansas City Royals, and Oakland Athletics. Simply, this is not a pitcher who fans would like to see on the bump for their favorite team when the season is on the line.

Toronto offense looking to make amends for Game 1 disaster

There are times when an offense scores one run in a baseball game and it can be attributed to poor luck on balls in play or it can be a situation in which the team tips their cap to the opposing pitcher who had his best stuff on a given day. Neither of those two things are a valid excuse for yesterday’s anemic showing at the plate for the Blue Jays. Minnesota recorded five of the top-six exit velocities for the game and Pablo Lopez generated only six swings and misses while striking out three batters across 5.2 innings of work. Toronto’s hitters simply lacked a coherent approach at the dish, which resulted in a poor showing overall.

What to expect from Toronto relief corps

Last October, part of the reason that the Blue Jays failed to reach their ultimate goal was due, in part, to an inability to protect late leads. Going into the playoffs this fall, this unit is still a concern, evident by their mediocre numbers to end the regular season. Across the last 30 days, Toronto’s bullpen ranks 15th in FIP, 18th in WHIP, 6th in strikeout rate, and 18th in walk percentage as a unit. As a result, manager John Schneider has less margin for error with his late-game decision-making than his counterpart in the opposing dugout.

Minnesota Twins

Pablo Lopez looking for better results in Game 1

Pablo Lopez struggled down the stretch of the regular season and enters play on Tuesday with a 4.24 ERA, 4.00 FIP, and 1.36 WHIP across his last seven starts. Lopez had little trouble throwing strikes down the stretch and he was still missing bats at a high-rate, evident by his 14.5% swinging-strike rate in that span. His velocity and spin rates also remained consistent with earlier in the season, making it particularly perplexing that he had a .355 BABIP against him during that stretch while allowing almost no hard contact or barreled balls. If Toronto trots out six or seven right-handed bats this afternoon, expect Lopez to have a nice bounce back day with some better luck on balls in play.

Minnesota offense ready to pounce in Game 2

In Game 1, Kevin Gausman threw 31 split-finger offerings, according to Baseball Savant. Only four of those 31 pitches resulted in a swinging-strike and only an additional four of those pitches resulted in a called strike on a pitch that was in the strike zone. This is to say – the Twins had a very clear approach at the dish yesterday, which was to hit fastballs and spit on everything else that Gausman had to offer. The approach resulted in a 44.1% swing rate against his fastball compared to a 32.3% swing rate against his split-finger. Forcing Gausman to come into the strike zone with his fastball resulted in a .375 batting average against the heater and only two swinging strikes against the fastball. Today, this offense has an even easier task in front of them, facing Jose Berrios who is one of the least-skilled pitchers in baseball when it comes to pitch sequencing. If the game plan today is as sharp as it was yesterday, the Twins offense could explode.

Twins’ bullpen ready to be called on to finish series

The Twins’ bullpen ranked 7th in FIP, 9th in WHIP, 1st in strikeout rate, and 9th in walk percentage across the final 30 days of the regular season. Their reliability was on full display again yesterday, delivering 3.1 innings of scoreless baseball – allowing only one hit and a walk. Even more important, the Minnesota relief corps worked efficiently in Game 1, which means that each of their high-leverage relievers should once again be available for Game 2. None of yesterday’s relievers for the Twins threw more than 14 pitches, which gives manager Rocco Baldelli plenty of options on Wednesday as he looks to close out the series.

Blue Jays vs. Twins – Picks & Predictions

In Game 1, Minnesota had the better starting pitcher, the more disciplined offense, the better defense, and an equally good bullpen as Toronto. In Game 2, the starting pitcher discrepancy is even larger and the defensive advantage is likely to remain the same as long as we see similar lineups to what each team had yesterday. The Twins were much better prepared to execute a high-quality game plan in the series opener, and the raucous home crowd only helped matters.

Minnesota’s offense should have every opportunity to do damage against Jose Berrios on Wednesday, especially considering the fact that there are significant winds blowing out to center field this afternoon at Target Field. Taking either the Twins moneyline or their team total at Caesars sportsbook are worthwhile options to consider in Game 2.

LEAN: Twins ML (-140, Fanatics Sportsbook)

PICK: Twins Team Total o4 Runs (-105, Caesars)