Pick on the Moneyline for Blue Jays-Twins on October 3
The MLB Playoffs start on Tuesday and the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins hooks up in Minneapolis with a date with the Houston Astros on the line in this best of three series.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins (-120, 7.5)
Pablo Lopez gets the start at pitcher in game one, who enters having allowed at least three runs in each of his last three regular season starts, but overall this season advanced numbers show he pitched better than his 3.66 ERA would indicate.
Lopez has a 3.33 fielding independent with 10.9 strikeouts to just 2.2 walks issued per nine innings but was also worse at home than on the road, posting a 4.21 ERA at home compared to a 3.10 road ERA.
The ace of the Blue Jays, Kevin Gausman, will oppose Lopez and also has a fielding independent that is lower than his ERA, supplying a 3.16 ERA and 2.97 fielding independent with 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings, which led qualifying American League pitchers during the 2023 regular season.
Gausman allowed two earned runs or fewer in 21 of his 31 starts this regular season and has similar numbers on the road to when he pitches at home with a 3.07 home ERA and 3.27 ERA on the road,
The Blue Jays back up Gausman with a bullpen that since July 4 is sixth in the league with a 3.51 ERA in their bullpen while the Twins have a 4.35 ERA in the bullpen in that span, which ranks 16th.
Lopez and the Twins bullpen also has to contend with a Blue Jays offense that has done more damage on the road than at home, averaging 1.27 home runs and over 4.9 runs per game on the road compared to 1.05 home runs and 4.35 runs per game at home. The Blue Jays .334 road on-base percentage is second in the American League while also being higher than their .323 on-base percentage at home.
While the Twins enter the playoffs after being the highest scoring MLB team in the month of September, having Royce Lewis dealing with injury, who hit four grand slams in a four week span across August and September, puts the Blue Jays in position to win game one on the road and extend the Twins playoff losing streak to 19.
