Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins Odds, Prediction, & Pick

Blue Jays vs. Twins Odds

The Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins will play Game 1 of their American League Wild Card series on Tuesday at Target Field. Entering play, Minnesota has lost an incredulous 18 consecutive postseason games, dating back to 2004. Pablo Lopez will get the ball for the Twins as they look to snap their historic losing streak, with Kevin Gausman getting the nod for the Blue Jays. First pitch is set for 4:38 PM ET on ESPN.

Ahead of the first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Twins as -120 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 7.5 runs.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Toronto Blue Jays

Which version of Kevin Gausman will we see on Tuesday?

Across his final nine regular season starts, Kevin Gausman posted a 3.06 ERA, 3.46 FIP, and a 1.21 WHIP. Yet, his path to those numbers was anything but linear – allowing one run or fewer in four of those outings and three runs or more four times as well. Gausman has been at his best against heavy right-handed lineups in 2023, with a 2.54 FIP and 1.06 WHIP against right-handed hitters compared to a 3.52 FIP and 1.33 WHIP against left-handed batters. Minnesota is likely to have at least five lefties in the lineup on Tuesday, which could present issues for Gausman.

Toronto offense ready to support Gausman

During the month of September, the Toronto offense ranked 8th in OPS, 8th in ISO, 6th in walk percentage, and 7th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. The primary concern for the Blue Jays offense in Game 1 is their right-handed heavy lineup against Lopez, who excels against right-handed hitters. Lopez posted a 2.84 FIP, 0.95 WHIP, and allowed a .205 batting average to righties in 2023, compared to a 3.87 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, and a .271 opponent batting average across the platoon. In a ballpark that typically suppresses right-handed power production in afternoon affairs, the Blue Jays have a difficult task in this spot.

What to expect from Toronto’s relief corps

Last October, part of the reason that the Blue Jays failed to reach their ultimate goal was due, in part, to an inability to protect late leads. Going into the playoffs this fall, this unit is still a concern, evidenced by their mediocre numbers to end the regular season. Across the last 30 days, Toronto’s bullpen ranks 15th in FIP, 18th in WHIP, 6th in strikeout rate, and 18th in walk percentage as a unit. As a result, manager John Schneider has less margin for error with his late-game decision-making than his counterpart in the opposing dugout.

Minnesota Twins

Pablo Lopez looking for better results in Game 1

Pablo Lopez struggled down the stretch of the regular season and enters play on Tuesday with a 4.24 ERA, 4.00 FIP, and 1.36 WHIP across his last seven starts. Lopez had little trouble throwing strikes down the stretch, and he was still missing bats at a high rate, evident by his 14.5% swinging-strike rate in that span. His velocity and spin rates also remained consistent with earlier in the season, making it particularly perplexing that he had a .355 BABIP against him during that stretch while allowing almost no hard contact or barreled balls. If Toronto trots out six or seven right-handed bats this afternoon, expect Lopez to have a nice bounce-back day with some better luck on balls in play.

Can the Twins offense end their playoff losing streak?

Heading into the postseason, Minnesota’s offense is firing on all cylinders. Since September 1, the Twins rank 5th in OPS, 5th in ISO, 1st in walk percentage, and 21st in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. The top of the Twins lineup is a very good fastball-hitting team, which also bodes well for them in Game 1 against Gausman, who threw his 4-seamer nearly 60 percent of the time during the regular season.

Reliable Minnesota bullpen ready for postseason

The Twins’ bullpen was extremely reliable late in the season as the team looked to secure the American League Central division. Across the final month of action, Minnesota’s arm barn ranked 7th in FIP, 9th in WHIP, 1st in strikeout rate, and 9th in walk percentage. As a result of the Twins clinching the division with nearly two weeks remaining in the regular season, everyone in this relief corps is rested and available for manager Rocco Baldelli.

Blue Jays vs. Twins – Picks & Predictions

Across the last three seasons, Target Field has been a power-suppressing environment for right-handed hitters in day games, while having the opposite impact for left-handed sluggers. The weather today could make those numbers a moot point, however, with significant winds blowing across the field from right to left. Gausman’s struggles against left-handed batters could be mitigated by the weather, and Lopez figures to have success against what should be a heavy right-handed lineup for the Blue Jays. If both bullpens do their job, the under has a good chance to hit in the series opener between these two teams.

LEAN: Under 7.5 (-120, Fanatics Sportsbook)