MLB Betting Advice: Pitchers to Avoid in 2024
Knowing which pitchers are unlikely to duplicate their previous success can be just as profitable as finding the hidden gems. As baseball strategies have evolved, starting pitchers are going shorter and shorter into games, which elevates the need to have a good grasp of a team's bullpen capabilities.
Another factor that heavily plays into a pitcher's success is his team's offensive abilities. The perfect example of this was the 2018 New York Mets Jacob deGrom. He led the league with an absurd 1.70 ERA, yet was saddled with a disheartening 10-9 record because of the Mets' inept offense. Here at Doc's, we take all of the vital statistics into consideration to give you the strongest recommendations.
Here are some of the pitchers that deserve some caution if you are considering backing them early in the season or drafting them for your fantasy teams.
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Justin Verlander (RHP) Houston Astros
2023: (2 teams): 13-8 3.22 ERA 162.1 IP 139 Hit 45 BB 144 K 18 HR
Will this be the year that Father Time catches up with one of the last true power pitchers? Verlander's New York vacation was shorter than anticipated, and he was traded at the deadline back to Houston for their postseason run. While his stats with both teams were very good, there was a slight dropoff in the second half of the season.
After a delayed start for the Mets last season (he made his first start in May of 2023), Verlander reported recently that he was "a little bit behind schedule" due to some offseason shoulder inflammation. After having missed the 2021 season entirely, this is of great concern to the Astros' organization. Prior to last season, Justin's fastballs had averaged 95 MPH in four out of the last five seasons. Last year, they averaged 94.4 MPH. Despite getting five starts in the pitcher-friendly Minute Maid Park, he gave up seven of his nine home runs with Houston. His 11 starts with the Astros produced the highest HardHit percentage and exit velocity of his career, indicating that hitters were getting better wood on the ball.
He was vintage Verlander in last year's ALDS against Minnesota, tossing six innings of 4-hit shutout ball. His two starts during the ALCS versus Texas looked like a Hall of Famer who was washed up, as Rangers hitters batted .250 against him, with an OPS of .773, and got 12 hits and three home runs in 12.1 innings pitched.
Verlander just turned 41 on February 20th, and in 2023 his average innings dropped from 6.56 to 6.00 innings per start. He's pitched 18 years in the bigs and has had a remarkable, sure-fire Hall of Fame career. But it might be time for him to enjoy spending time with his lovely wife, model Kate Upton, rather than hitting the road with 30 other men.
Dylan Cease (RHP) Chicago White Sox
2023: 7-9 4.58 ERA 177 IP 172 H 79 BB 214 K 19 HR
The runner-up to the 2022 AL Cy Young with an ERA of 2.20, Cease came back to Earth in 2023. While the White Sox are hopeful that he can duplicate his success from 2021 and 2022, analytics point to 2023 as being the closer representation of Cease's ability.
While Cease is currently one of the great strikeout pitchers in today's game (over 210 Ks in the past three seasons), his control has always been an issue. After posting a career-best of 3.69 walks per 9 innings in 2021, the following two seasons saw that number rise until last season when Cease had the 5th-most walks per 9 innings with 4.02 BB/9.
The second half of last season also saw his average numbers worsen. His ERA, 4.30 before the All-Star break, climbed up to an alarming 4.96. Batters went from hitting .241 to .261, and his WHIP increased from 1.34 to 1.52. Until Cease can cease walking batters, he's a ticking time bomb of a starting pitcher.
Blake Snell (LHP) Unsigned free agent
2023: 14-9 2.25 ERA 180 IP 115 H 99 BB 234 K 15 HR
It's not often you see a two-time, reigning Cy Young Award winner on a "Potential Pitcher Bust" list, but Blake Snell isn't your typical Cy Young winner. Despite the great overall numbers in 2023, the southpaw's walk rate of 13.3% was dead last among starting pitchers. His 2.25 ERA was almost 1.5 runs below his xFIP of 3.62. Another indication that last year was an outlier was his career-low BABIP of .256, over 30 points lower than his career average of .288. Both of those analytics indicate that Snell was blessed with a large amount of luck.
Last year was just the second time the 31-year-old lefty complied at least 180 innings. Some of those short outings are due to inefficiency, but mostly it's the result of a plethora of injuries throughout his career.
Making things even more difficult is the fact that Snell remains unsigned. This creates concern because his entire career Snell has pitched in ultra-friendly pitcher parks, first at Tropicana Field with the Tampa Bay Rays (4th-lowest scoring ballpark) and then the pitcher's paradise of PETCO Park with the San Diego Padres, the lowest-scoring field in the majors. With all of these factors and an ever-increasing reduction of spring training, Snell could be a pitcher to avoid (or target) in the first few months of the season.
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