MLB DFS Picks: Slate Preview, Projections, & Optimizer Values for Thursday (August 24)

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01 January 0001

Taylor Smith previews the Thursday, August 24th slate, breaking down his favorite MLBDFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. to build DFS lineups like a pro!

There’s a little more afternoon baseball to play on this fine Thursday, but we’re here to talk about the 5-game main slate that starts at 7:05 ET. We’ve got a handful of solid starting pitchers on the schedule, with Merrill Kelly and Pablo Lopez looking like the early headliners from a projected ownership standpoint.

We’ve also got no Braves, Dodgers, or Coors Field game, which could lead to fairly spread-out ownership on the hitting side of things. There’s still a lot to dive into, so let’s get right to some MLBDFS picks for Thursday night.

MLBDFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings

This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLBDFS tools, including our industry-leading MLBDFS projections and MLBDFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.

MLBDFS Weather Check

Before we look at the projected lineups and MLBDFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be for his important weather news and updates.

CHC/PIT looks a bit dicey off the bat, with an early YELLOW/ORANGE tag in Roth’s weather report. We’ve got some spotty showers early with some late-arriving storms, which could make this one a little tricky. Justin Steele would be another decent pitching target here if we get the green light.

OAK/CHW gets a straight YELLOW, with storms in the area that should quickly dry up. As of now, sounds like the only real risk here is for a delay.

TOR/BAL is YELLOW/GREEN for a fairly low chance of a delay. As always, keep an eye on Twitter and check out Crunch Time for Roth’s final thoughts pre-lock.

TEX/MIN features hot/humid conditions with winds of around 10 mph blowing out toward right field. Good hitting weather.

MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks

There are ways to get edges in MLBDFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.

Adam Frazier has been dealing with a sore right hand, but he was reportedly available to play off the bench yesterday. We’ll see if he cracks the Orioles’ lineup tonight against Jose Berrios.

Ke’Bryan Hayes should take the leadoff spot for Pittsburgh tonight against lefty Justin Steele. Connor Joe typically hits clean-up in these situations, while Jack Suwinski moves all the way down to 8th.

Donovan Solano is projected to lead off for the Twins against southpaw Andrew Heaney. Noted lefty masher Jordan Luplow should hit third, as well.

Lawrence Butler is your projected leadoff bat for the A’s against right-hander Jesse Scholtens in Chicago. Ryan Noda is also back after returning from a fractured jaw, which gives the A’s another decent left-handed bat.

Tim Anderson returned yesterday after serving his suspension, and he should hit first for the ChiSox against Ken Waldichuk.

TJ Friedl was buried in the middle of the Reds’ order last night against Reid Detmers, but he’s projected to get back into the leadoff spot tonight vs. Merrill Kelly. Joey Votto is also projected to return to the lineup after sitting in last night’s second game of the doubleheader. Noelvi Marte should move down to 7th in the order.

Evan Longoria should crack the Diamondbacks’ lineup tonight vs. left-hander Brandon Williamson. He was activated from the IL earlier in the week after missing time with a bad back.

There isn’t a whole lot of clarity on the offensive side of things tonight. The White Sox (5.24) are the only team on the slate with an implied run total of over 5, but they’re still the White Sox. Ken Waldichuk has pitched better of late, but he does take a substantial park hit going into Guaranteed Rate Field here. I’d also expect Arizona (4.75) to gain some steam against another young LHP in Brandon Williamson, though he’s another guy that hasn’t really pitched like a gas can recently. I really don’t mind looking to the A’s for value, as they’ll be taking their swings in a hitter-friendly park against the middling Jesse Scholtens.

Make sure to follow the RG MLB feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.

MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLBDFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLBDFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLBDFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Pablo Lopez ($10,900) is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but it’s at least a little concerning that he’ll be facing a powerful Rangers offense in good hitting weather. The Reds have plenty of power in their lineup, but they also strike out so much against right-handed pitching (30.7%!) that Merrill Kelly ($10,200) should emerge as the co-SP1 tonight. Kelly has also pitched quite well this season, even if he doesn’t have a reputation as a high-strikeout guy.

Justin Steele ($10,400) is on my radar in tournaments given the matchup against an increasingly futile Pirates offense. Given the matchups, I’d expect the pOWN gulf between he and Lopez to shrink as we get closer to lock. There isn’t much on this slate by way of cheap pitching, but Andrew Heaney ($8,200), Ken Waldichuk ($6,700), and Jesse Scholtens ($6,400) will have to do. Heaney’s a boom/bust pitcher in a boom/bust matchup, while Waldichuk and Scholtens are both facing weak offenses in an overall favorable hitting environment.

The OAK/CHW games looks like the first stop for bats. Luis Robert ($3,900) is the clear standout of the bunch given the way he’s crushed left-handed pitching this season (.412 wOBA, .269 ISO), followed by the cheaper Eloy Jimenez and Andrew Vaughn ($2,900 apiece). Brent Rooker ($2,900) is the most appealing power bat (.229 ISO) on the Oakland side of things, though the full stack is squarely in play. Zack Gelof ($4,200) has been the A’s best hitter in a fairly limited sample, while Seth Brown ($2,600) and Ryan Noda ($2,800) will hold the platoon edge against Scholtens. As mentioned, you can also find a couple of cheap leadoff bats in this game with Lawrence Butler ($2,200) and Tim Anderson ($2,500).

Even with Waldichuk in better form lately, Robert’s fantasy point total on Underdog is too low here. I’ll be smashing higher than 8.5 fantasy points for Robert on UD tonight, as we have him projected for nearly 15. If you’re a new user over there, be sure to claim our Underdog Fantasy promo code for a 100% match bonus on your next deposit, up to $100.

(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)

Arizona is next on the list. Williamson has been decent against left-handed hitters, but righties have already taken him deep 14 times this season. Ketel Marte ($3,400) is a standout with the platoon advantage at a thin second base position, while Christian Walker ($3,700) is always the headliner in this lineup against LHPs. Newcomer Tommy Pham ($2,900) gives the lineup more depth and right-handed thunder, while Longoria ($2,100) and Gabriel Moreno ($2,200) are in play as punts. I wouldn’t ignore Corbin Carroll ($3,900) lefty-lefty, especially in GPP stacks.

Power hunting with the Twins is viable against Heaney given his long history of struggles with keeping the ball in the yard. This isn’t the most powerful version of the Minnesota lineup, but Carlos Correa ($3,000) and Jorge Polanco ($3,000) are useful values that’ll hit near the top of the order. Michael A. Taylor ($2,700) will likely get buried in the No. 9 hole, but he’s flashed massive power vs. LHPs on the year (.264 ISO).

A few more one-off/cash game values to consider are Ke’Bryan Hayes ($3,000), Gunnar Henderson ($3,500), Dansby Swanson ($3,200), and Royce Lewis ($2,900).

We get a cheaper salary with Merrill Kelly on DK ($9,100), which should lead to significant ownership and the unofficial SP1 status in all formats. The $9,800 Justin Steele shouldn’t be far behind, while Lopez ($10,600) draws the toughest matchup of the 3. All of these guys are very much in play for all formats tonight given the lack of depth at the position, but there’s leverage to be found in GPPs if they’re going to be owned by about half of the field.

Scholtens ($5,000) and Waldichuk ($5,300) are both cheap enough to make my player pool for tournament builds, while I’ll add Heaney ($7,700) to the mix given his strikeout upside. Kyle Gibson ($8,200) is playable as a decent righty against a righty-heavy Blue Jays outfit, while I suppose I see the case for Jose Berrios ($8,200) on the other side of the same game. Things fall off a cliff once you get past the top 3, however.

While the pitchers are cheap enough to play, it’ll still be hard to avoid the OAK/CHW clash from a stacking standpoint. Robert ($5,600) has a clear case as the top hitter on the entire slate, while just about everybody else on both sides is cheap. The very obvious roster construction tonight will be some combination of the top 3 pitchers and stacks of this game. That’s a good path for cash games and smaller-field GPPs, but you’ll have to find some way to get different in larger-field contests.

The offense I’d be most inclined to stack against an ace pitcher is Texas. They still have an implied run total north of 4, and remember this game has excellent hitting weather. Guys like Corey Seager ($6,600) and Marcus Semien ($6,100) are also expensive, which should keep the ownership at a minimum. Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia, and Mitch Garver all have ISOs of over .200 vs. right-handed pitching this season, while Jonah Heim isn’t far behind (.196).

The Diamondbacks and Twins are in decent enough spots that I like them as alternatives to the OAK/CHW chalk in tourneys. The Cubs – who will face off against Andre Jackson – make sense as a tournament stack despite the more pitcher-friendly park in Pittsburgh.

MLB Premium LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.

MLBDFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLBDFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLBDFS experts.

And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.