MLB Picks for August 1: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET marks the MLB trade deadline, which will undoubtedly have an impact on the betting slate. There will likely be a flurry of moves made, although it remains to be seen if we’ll see a true impact player change squads. In particular, the hitting options available are pretty weak, with Tommy Pham and Teoscar Hernandez rumored to be the best hitters available.

As for the slate itself, all 30 teams are expected to take the field, with each game starting at 6:40 p.m. ET or later.

Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s slate.

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays:

The Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-102)

The Orioles are going to have Kyle Bradish on the mound on Tuesday, who is one of my favorite pitchers to target in the betting market at the moment. Bradish’s 3.29 ERA is solid, but I still don’t think the general public realizes how good he is. His 3.62 FIP validates his traditional metrics, and he has some of the best pure stuff in baseball. He trails only Graham Ashcraft and Spencer Strider in terms of Stuff+, and he checks in just slightly ahead of Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole, and Shohei Ohtani. That’s pretty darn good company.

In addition, the Orioles should have a pretty good matchup offensively. They’re taking on Hyun Jin Ryu, who will be making his first start since last June. He underwent Tommy John surgery last season, and it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be in his return. He pitched to a 5.67 ERA before getting injured last year, and his 4.37 ERA and 4.45 xERA weren’t particularly impressive in 2022, either.

Baltimore has one of the better offenses in the league, and they’ve posted a 117 wRC+ against Southpaws over the past 30 days. They also rank ninth in runs per game for the year, so they should give Bradish solid run support in this spot. I’m happy to play the Orioles at the current number.

Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners:

The Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (+100)

This is another spot where I think the wrong team is favored. The Mariners are currently in fourth place in the AL West, trailing the Rangers, Astros, and Angels. They’re also behind six teams in the race for a Wild Card spot, so they are rumored sellers before Tuesday’s All-Star break. Hernandez is one name who is “likely” to be dealt, while Ty France is also reportedly on the block. That means their lineup could be significantly shorthanded for their matchup vs. the Red Sox.

That’s great news for Brayan Bello, who is another young pitcher who is undervalued in the betting market. He’s pitched to a 3.66 ERA for the year, although he’s struggled a bit out of the break. The Mariners represent a great spot for Bello to get his season back on track. They own the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, and they grade out as just slightly above average in wRC+. Without France or Hernandez, they’ll likely be below average in that metric moving forward.

On the other side, Bryce Miller will get the ball for the Mariners. He’s been solid in his rookie season, but his numbers have regressed as the year has progressed. He pitched to a 2.70 FIP in May, a 4.63 FIP in June, and a 5.90 mark in July, so his metrics are getting less impressive by the start. Against a potent Red Sox lineup, Miller could be in for some trouble.

Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers:

The Pick: White Sox Moneyline (+195)

No team has declared their intentions more than the Rangers before the trade deadline. They made the biggest move so far, acquiring Max Scherzer from the Mets, and they added Aroldis Chapman to beef up their bullpen. The Rangers’ offense is already elite, but with the injuries at pitcher piling up, they’ve given up some prospects to bring in additional arms.

The White Sox are on the other end of the spectrum. They’ve already traded away Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Lance Lynn, and they might not be done selling yet.

With that in mind, it’s not surprising that they’re pretty significant road underdogs in this matchup. However, they’re going to be facing Andrew Heaney, who has been far from dominant this season. He owns a 4.62 ERA, and his 4.78 xERA and 5.19 FIP are slightly worse. He’s been even worse from June on, posting a 5.63 ERA and a 5.63 FIP.

Heaney is also left-handed, which means the White Sox will be on the positive side of their splits. They’re still not a great offensive team against Southpaws, but they’re far better than they are against right-handers. Luis Robert has been especially potent against left-handers, posting a 183 wRC+ in that split.

Ultimately, this line feels like it’s based more on the overall perception of these teams rather than who we’ll see on the field on Tuesday. As long as the White Sox don’t go absolutely crazy before the deadline, I give them a legitimate shot of winning this matchup.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.