MLB Picks Today: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook for August 22
Tuesday is always a great day for baseball. All 30 teams are scheduled to take the field, with each game slated to start at 6:40 p.m. ET or later.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s slate.
Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers:
The Twins and Brewers will square off Tuesday in a battle of Central division leaders. The Brewers are clinging to a 2.5-game lead over the Cubs in the NL Central, while the Twins own a 6.0-game lead in the putrid AL Central. Minnesota’s 65-60 record would put them in fourth place in the other two AL divisions, so their perch atop the standings is more a testament to the futility of the AL Central than the Twins' dominance.
Still, I like what the Twins bring to the table in this matchup. They’ll send Bailey Ober to the hill, who has had a quality season. He owns a 3.40 ERA and 3.81 xERA across 20 starts, and he’s averaged just under nine strikeouts per nine innings. His numbers have dipped since the All-Star break, but it’s due primarily to home run variance. He’s allowed more than 2.3 homers per nine innings over the second half of the year, despite limiting batters to 0.87 long balls per nine in the first half.
The Brewers are not the type of team to take advantage of Ober’s home run issue. They rank 28th in ISO against right-handed pitchers, and they’re 27th in wRC+.
Wade Miley owns a 3.05 ERA for the Brewers, but his advanced metrics aren’t nearly as impressive as Ober’s. His xERA, FIP and xFIP are all over 4.50, so he’s been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball. Overall, this feels like a great spot to buy low on Ober.
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres:
The Marlins will take the field as considerable underdogs vs. the Padres on Tuesday. The Padres have all the talent in the world, but they have not been able to translate that to on-field results this season. They’re currently six games under .500, and they’re just 8-11 in August.
They’ll have their ace on the mound in Blake Snell, but Snell hasn’t been quite as dominant since the All-Star break. His traditional numbers are still excellent, but his FIP has jumped to 4.27 over the second half of the year. The Marlins are quietly an excellent offense against southpaws, ranking 10th in wRC+.
Jesus Luzardo will get the ball for the Marlins, and he’s hit a rough patch recently. He’s allowed at least four runs in four straight starts, and the Padres will represent another tough test. However, Luzardo has the talent to win in any matchup. Before his last four starts, he allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven straight outings.
I’m willing to bet on some positive regression for Luzardo in this spot. Given how disappointing the Padres have been all season, they feel overpriced in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies:
These two teams are currently battling for playoff positioning in the NL Wild Card race. The Phillies have put themselves in a solid position, but the Giants are just 0.5 games up on the Diamondbacks for the last spot. There’s still plenty of season left to go, and the Giants are just 3-7 over their last 10 games.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising that they’re looking for reinforcements. That will come in the form of Kyle Harrison on Tuesday. Harrison will be making his first big-league start after dominating hitters with a 14.39 K/9 in Triple-A. He was recently named the Giants' No. 1 prospect and the 17th-best prospect in all of baseball.
There could be some growing pains for Harrison, especially against a tough Phillies offense. However, I’d rather take my chances with him than Taijuan Walker. Walker is a known commodity, and despite his 13-5 record, he’s pretty mediocre. He’s posted a 4.03 ERA, 4.44 xERA and 4.68 FIP across 24 starts this season.
Ultimately, +114 feels like a pretty good price tag for the Giants in this spot.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
