MLB Picks for October 9: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

The Divisional Round is in full swing and tonight brings two games with all four remaining National League teams. The Phillies are up 1-0 over the Braves while the Diamondbacks look to make it 2-0 over the Dodgers.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

We have a very good pitching matchup between Zack Wheeler for the Phillies and Max Fried of the Braves. Both of these starts have faced the opposing teams and found success, which is why I’ll be looking at the under through the first five innings. Wheeler faced the Braves three times this season, tossing 19 innings allowing seven runs on 13 hits with 21 strikeouts. The Braves hit just .186 against him but they did hit four home runs. The majority of the damage against Wheeler came in a start in September, where they scored six of the seven runs against him. He simply didn’t have it that night and was done after five innings. He bounced back the following start and held the Braves to just one run on three hits through six. Overall, Wheeler has been the Phillies best starter and has held the Braves in check for the most part.

Fried is the wild card here. He is making his first start since September 21 after dealing with a blister on the index finger of his throwing hand. Prior to that though, he was money on the mound. He wrapped up the month of September making four starts and allowing just five runs through 24 innings and 27 strikeouts. One of those starts was against the Phillies, holding them to just one run on four hits through five. The Phillies are a solid hitting club against lefties but they really struggle against the curveball. Against lefties who through curve, including last year, tonight’s projected lineup has a .277 wOBA with a .111 ISO and a 29.2% K%. Fried is throwing the curveball almost as much as his fastball at 25% of the time.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

I think there is a lot to like about the over in tonight’s game. Let’s start with Zac Gallen, who has vastly different numbers on the road than at home. On the road, Gallen owns a 4.42 ERA with a .313 wOBA, 15 of the 22 home runs allowed and a 4.15 FIP. He faced the Dodgers twice on the road, the only times he pitched against them, and allowed 11 runs on 15 hits, including four home runs, through 10 innings. The Dodgers have simply had Gallen’s number, espeically at home. With his struggles on the road, I think Gallen is out of this game early.

On the D-Backs side, they impressed everyone by throwing up 11 runs against the Dodgers in Game 1. They knocked out Kershaw in 0.1 of an inning, tagging him for six of those runs. This forced the Dodgers to essentially go to a bullpen game and use five relievers. Bobby Miller is taking the mound tonight having made two starts against the D-Backs. He limited the damage by allowing just four runs but he put a lot of traffic on the basepaths. Miller allowed 11 hits and walked six through 12 innings. He hasn’t pitched great at Dodger Stadium either, so I think there is a very strong chance this goes over.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.