MLB Picks for September 11: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Happy Monday, you animals. Hopefully, football didn’t desecrate your bankroll over the weekend, because we have baseball to bet on this Monday. Let’s look at three bets I like on the board for tonight.

Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins

This strikeout prop seems a bit high to me and this isn’t a knock against how good Woodruff has been. Since returning to the mound at the beginning of August, he’s posted an 11 K/9 through 35.2 innings. So why would I be looking to take the under on his strikeout prop? Well, this Marlins aren’t a team that provide a lot of strikeout upside. On the year against righties, this team has a 20.5% K%, which ranks 24th in the league. Woodruff is a heavy fastball pitcher, throwing that pitch 40% of the time this season. Not only are the Marlins a very good hitting club against the fastball, they don’t strikeout much against it. The projected lineup for tonight has just a 19.3% K% against the fastball. Woodruff uses this pitch the most with two strikes in the count, and I’m not convinced the Marlins will suddenly start falling victim to it. I think Woodruff will be close to this number but ultimately land on the under.

New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks

We have a lot to like in this matchup for Lindor, who will face D’Backs pitcher Zach Davies. Davies was hit hard by the Mets earlier this season, allowing four runs on five hits through 5.2 innings. He struggles against both sides of the plate and lefties have currently tagged him with a .342 wOBA. Lindor has excelled against the two main pitches that Davies will throw his way, as he combines to throw a fastball or changeup 60% of the time. Lindor has a .393 wOBA and a .248 ISO against the fastball and a .425 wOBA and a .186 ISO against the changeup.

Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels

The Pick: Seattle Mariners over 4.5 runs +100

After a brutal series against the Rays, the Mariners look to get back on track (they better) against the Angels. They have a good opportunity to do so against Reid Detmers. He’s been having a horrible second-half of the season, posting a 5.80 ERA with a .373 wOBA through 45 innings thrown. His strikeout numbers are down, walks and hard-hit rate are up and it’s gone all wrong for the Angels starter. The Mariners are a good hitting club against lefties and tonight’s projected lineup has a .338 wOBA against them. Last time out against this club, Detmers was tagged for seven runs on nine hits through just 4.0 innings of work. Give me the Mariners to get back on track tonight.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.