MLB Picks for October 3: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Dude. The MLB Playoffs start today and we need to make some bets. I’ll share some of my favorite plays for today and hopefully get you some of those beautiful green check marks.

Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins

I really like the Jays this afternoon. They have Kevin Gausman taking the mound, who should finish in the top three in Cy Young voting. He has to be feeling good coming into this matchup, as his final two starts of the season came against the Yankees and he shut them out through 13 innings with 15 strikeouts. He had mixed results against the Twins in the first half of the season, as he allowed six runs in one start but only one in the other. I’m just not crazy about this Twins lineup and they strikeout A LOT. Today’s lineup has a combined 27.4% K% against righties with three players over 30%, including your leadoff hitter Edouard Julien.

On the other side of this game, Pablo Lopez is limping into the playoffs. Over his last three starts, he allowed 11 runs on 18 hits, including three home runs, and 21 strikeouts through 15.1 innings. The biggest problem for me is when you consider who those numbers came against. You’d be surprised to see it was the Athletics, Angels and White Sox. Not exactly teams that should be knocking around the Twins’ ace. Lopez has also been much worse at home, where he has a 4.21 ERA, a .303 wOBA and 11 of the 24 home runs he’s allowed. I’ll take the Jays at even money.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins

I do also like the team total over over 3.5 runs for the game but that’s currently priced at -145. The Phillies will matchup against Jesus Luzardo, who has been much worse on the road. Through 70.1 innings, Luzardo has a 4.48 ERA, a .343 wOBA and a 4.05 FIP away from Miami. This projected Phillies lineup is a very good hitting club against lefties, with a combined .360 wOBA, a .210 ISO and only a 23.5% K%. They’re also very good against sliders by lefties, which Luzardo throws around 30% of the time as his second pitch. The projected lineup has a combined .427 wOBA and a .322 ISO against sliders by lefties. It wouldn’t shock me if Luzardo is out of this game early, as I think the Phillies jump on him quickly.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers

I like this matchup for Walker going up against Corbin Burnes. Walker is a tough strikeout and has a lot of success against cutters. Dating back to last season, Walker has a .385 wOBA with a .283 ISO and a ridiculously low 6.2% K%. Burnes uses this as his primary pitch, throwing it 53% of the time. Walker has always been someone who consistently puts the ball in play and had just a 19.2% K% overall on the year. Walker has hit for plenty of power this season, boasting a .226 ISO on the road.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.