MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for July 14, 2023

Corbin Burnes, from a results standpoint, has been pretty disappointing. He’s been one of baseball’s best pitchers over the last three seasons, posting an ERA under three. This season, his strikeout rate has come down, and his walk rate has come up, leading to a 3.94 ERA. However, he’s a pitcher I’m looking to target in the second half.

Burnes’s cutter is key. It’s been one of the best pitches in baseball over the past few seasons, but he saw the velocity dip to below 94 MPH. Last season, he averaged 95 MPH, which is a big difference, especially for a cutter.

We are starting to see that velocity return, averaging 94.8 MPH on the pitch in his most recent start against the Reds. Burnes ranks fourth in baseball in Stuff+, a pitch modeling stat that grades each pitch and has been one of the best predictors of future performance. He sits just behind Shohei Ohtani, Gerrit Cole, and Spencer Strider.

Burnes has been extremely profitable facing off against the Reds, going 5-1 since 2021. In two starts against the Reds last season, he tossed 12.1 innings while only allowing six hits and three runs. This season, he’s allowed five runs over 12 innings but just five hits. Two home runs in those two starts have been the difference, one by Votto and one by Jonathan India.

Through 112 PA against the Reds’ current roster, the opponent’s batting average is .133, xwOBA at .245, and xSLG at .240. By far, the best stats against a current roster on the board today.

Graham Ashcraft will line up on the other side against the Brewers, who has had issues pitching at home and against NL Central opponents. We noticed it last season, and it has carried over this year outside of some early starts against the Pirates.