MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (4/6)

Today is the first day of the Major League Baseball season heavily impacted by weather, as four of the ten scheduled games were postponed last night. Unfortunately, that means the home openers for the Mets, Phillies, Orioles, and Twins will have to wait at least one day.

YTD: 10-7-1 (+5.93 units)

Thursday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

YTD: 10-7-1 (+5.93 units)

Joc Pederson Under 0.5 hits vs. the White Sox

Many hitters nowadays are seemingly high strikeout guys that hit for power, and Giants designated hitter Joc Pederson embodies that to a tee. Two of Pederson’s four hits (in 19 at-bats) have been home runs. However, Pederson has also struck out eight times, and those struggles should continue against a pitcher he struggled with in his career.

Pederson is 0-for-11 with five strikeouts against White Sox starter Lance Lynn. Lynn struck out six batters in 5.2 innings in his first start, and three of his pitches (cutter, four-seam fastball, and curveball) generated at least a 43.8% whiff percentage. That is good enough to rank him in the 95th percentile early on in whiff percentage, and Pederson will undoubtedly and to that high percentage in his at-bats against Lynn.

Will Smith to record an RBI vs. the Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly failed to exorcise his demons against the Dodgers in his first start, lasting just 3.2 innings despite not allowing an earned run. Los Angeles drove his pitch count up to 74 quickly as a result of three hits and four walks, and Kelly remains 0-9 in 13 career starts against the Dodgers with a 5.64 ERA and 1.627 WHIP (his highest against any opponent he has made more than one start against).

In his two plate appearances against Kelly, Will Smith walked and hit a hard ball right to the left fielder. However, Smith is still slashing .318/.360/.500 in 22 career at-bats against Kelly and homered in three consecutive games entering this series opener. Additionally, the two hitters in front of him in the Dodgers lineup have hit well against Kelly in their careers. Mookie Betts is slashing .304/.385/.739 against Kelly, while Freddie Freeman’s slash line is .375/.500/.813. Thus, we should not need a home run from Smith to cash this wager, as there should be plenty of traffic on the basepaths in his at-bats.

Blake Snell Under outs recorded vs. the Braves

Padres southpaw Blake Snell did not continue his momentum from a dazzling second half of last season when he pitched to a 2.19 ERA compared to a 5.22 ERA in the first half. Snell has been a slow starter his entire career, as he has a .423 winning percentage and 4.08 ERA in 82 appearances (81 starts) in the first half but a .674 winning percentage and 2.68 ERA in 68 career second-half starts.

Snell has not been a bullpen’s best friend in his early-season starts, averaging just over five innings (5.08) per first-half appearance. He has consistently failed to go deep into games, as his .700 OPS and .306 BAbip allowed have gotten him into trouble. We expect those struggles to continue against a Braves lineup that ranked in the top five of wRC+ (118), ISO (.179), and BAbip (.323) against left-handed pitching last season.

This prop is currently unavailable at DraftKings, and if it remains so, we would pivot to the Under of Snell’s strikeout total.

Check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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