Yankees vs Rays Prediction, Picks, Odds

Covers

26 August 2023

Despite Clark Schmidt's struggles over his last few starts, the New York right-hander should hold his own opposite of Tyler Gasnow when these two AL East rivals meet at Tropicana Field on Saturday. Read more in our Yankees vs. Rays betting picks.

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The Yankees finally found a way to win a game on Friday, leaning on solid offensive output and great pitching. After snapping the Rays’ four-game winning streak, they’ll set out for a series victory on Saturday.

Let’s break it all down in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Rays on August 26.

Yankees vs Rays odds

Yankees vs Rays predictions

Clarke Schmidt is starting to figure it out for the New York Yankees. His ground ball rate continues to rise with every passing month and his strikeout rate is back up to 26.5% in the month of August. He has looked the part of a major-league starting pitcher for the better part of two months now, but his numbers are a bit muddied on account of an eight-run disaster against the Braves.

However, it's easy to forgive Schmidt for that start, considering the Braves are the best offense in baseball and have routinely made life a living nightmare for opposing starters.

While the Tampa Bay Rays have been hitting the ball well over the last couple of weeks (ranking third in wRC+), their abnormally high .388 BABIP would indicate some regression is going to hit this team hard. The Rays are also punching out in 24.5% of plate appearances, which should ultimately help inflate Schmidt's strikeout numbers at the Trop.

The Yankees’ offense is steadily improving, but I can’t stress enough how bad this matchup is for them. Tyler Glasnow may be the most elite strikeout arm in the American League and will now face an offense that is striking out in 28.5% of plate appearances over the last 14 days.

I really like a low-scoring game here. New York should struggle to score runs without making much contact and I trust Schmidt against a team that is due to fall back down to Earth at the plate.

My best bet: Under 7 (+102 at FanDuel)

Yankees vs Rays same-game parlay

Under 7 (-104)

Glasnow 8+ strikeouts (-194)

Stanton 2+ total bases (+180)

Glasnow should really help us out in getting to the Under on Saturday, considering his strong track record against the Yankees. He owns a 3.12 ERA in eight career starts against the Bronx Bombers and that’s come along with 59 strikeouts in 43 1/3 innings pitched.

Glasnow’s boasting a strong 33.4% strikeout rate for the season, and the Yankees’ near-30% strikeout rate for the last two weeks should combine very nicely to get us to eight punchouts. It’s a number the Tampa starter has hit in five of his last seven starts, including once against New York.

I also want to bet on Giancarlo Stanton here. He’s the only Yankees hitter who’s had any sort of success against Glasnow, hitting .308 in 13 at-bats with three of those four hits have been homers. "Big G" is also starting to heat up with five hits over his last two games — three of which have been for extra bases.

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Yankees vs Rays moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I almost took the Yankees here, as New York has a decent enough pitching matchup here with Schmidt taking the mound. I also think this Rays team is going to begin to regress a bit as their BABIP naturally comes down to where it’s been all season.

Tampa Bay’s bullpen has also been pretty crummy in the second half, ranking 21st with a 4.67 ERA, while New York’s remains strong with a 3.60 ERA during that time.

Over at DraftKings, 21% of moneyline bets are on the Yankees with 27% of the handle. While 88% of tickets are backing the Over, it was lucky to hit on Friday and I think today's contest will prove to be a different story.

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Trend to know

The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays

Yankees vs Rays game info

Starting pitchers

Clarke Schmidt (8-7, 4.68 ERA): Schmidt has made four starts in August, allowing five runs over 16 frames in the first three and subsequently surrendering eight to the Braves. The good news here is that he’s struck out 22 batters over the course of 18 1/3 innings.

Tyler Glasnow (6-4, 3.35 ERA): The Rays have been taking it easy with Glasnow after he experienced some discomfort this summer, and this will be his first start in a week. The right-hander has remained strong in the strikeout department with at least seven per game in his last 10 outings.