MLB Player Props Today: Fried, Gallen, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction

What kind of performances can we expect on Monday from Max Fried and Zac Gallen? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Monday, October 9, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.

The MLB Postseason has been full of surprises to date, and yesterday was no exception, with both underdogs winning outright on the moneyline. On Monday, fans will be treated to a pair of National League contests, both of which saw a heavy favorite lose outright in Game 1. If choosing to avoid larger markets on sides and totals tonight, the player prop market is another option worth considering.

During the regular season, we went 103-63-6 (62.6%) across our last 172 recommendations in this article. We were 120-59 (67.2%) on pitcher prop recommendations.

We will look to continue our success in this article in the playoffs – below are three prop leans for October 9!

Don’t live in a state with sports betting this baseball season? Use the PrizePicks referral codeGRINDERS for $100 sign-up bonus for MLB Fantasy Pick’em.

MLB Player Props Today

Max Fried o4.5 Strikeouts (-118), FanDuel

During the Wild Card round, the Phillies faced two left-handed starting pitchers, and both of them recorded 5 strikeouts in 4 innings or less. Jesus Luzardo finished the regular season ranked in the 77th percentile in chase rate and the 82nd percentile in strikeout rate. Braxton Garrett ranked in the 76th percentile in chase rate and the 51st percentile in strikeout rate during the regular season. This is to say that Fried, who ranked in the 50th percentile in chase rate and the 67th percentile in strikeout rate during the regular season, does not profile much different than either of those two Miami pitchers in terms of swings-and-misses, and Fried is undeniably the most talented of the bunch. There are obvious concerns with a pitcher who has not thrown in a live game since September 21, but the Phillies have been striking out at an obscene rate against LHP in recent weeks, making this a worthwhile stab if betting player props on Monday.

Zac Gallen u15.5 Outs Recorded (-122), FanDuel

The Los Angeles Dodgers fell flat on their faces in their series opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks, but they have a strong bounce-back opportunity in front of them on Monday night against Zac Gallen. Gallen struggled mightily on the road during the regular season, with a 4.15 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, and a .245 opponent batting average allowed. His strikeout rate was 7.7% lower on the road compared to at home, which does not bode well against a Los Angeles offense that had the 6th-lowest strikeout rate against RHP after the All-Star Break. The Dodgers ranked 2nd in OPS and 9th in ISO against RHP during the second half of the season. This is a tough matchup for Gallen, which could lead to an early shower this evening.

MLBDFS Pick’em

If Game 1 was any indication, manager Brian Snitker is hoping to avoid using his middle relievers entirely in this series, if possible. During the final month of the regular season, Atlanta’s arm barn ranked 28th in FIP, 24th in WHIP, 14th in strikeout rate, and 11th in walk percentage. Only the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Angels (both non-playoff teams) had a worse bullpen FIP than Atlanta in that span. Fried has not pitched in a live game in over two weeks, but it is clear that Atlanta’s primary path to victory rests on him getting through a minimum of 5 frames to shorten the bridge to Snitker’s high-leverage arms in the latter innings. This is far from a lock, but the Braves’ postseason hopes likely rest on Fried recording at least 15 outs on Monday.

MLB Props Results – Wager Type

HITTERPROPS

Dinger Tuesday: 4-11-1
Hitter: 122-114-7
Stolen Base: 2-2

PITCHERPROPS

Hits Allowed: 3-2
Outs Recorded: 38-22
Strikeout: 78-35-3
Walk: 1-0
Earned Runs Allowed: 0-0-1