MLB prop bets Aug. 17: Why we’re backing Max Muncy to go hitless vs. Brewers

Tonight, we’re fading Max Muncy and tailing Paul Goldschmidt from a six-game MLB slate.

The pregame narrative: Betting on anybody to go hitless can feel like a daunting task, but Muncy is worth it at +107 tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers. As for Goldschmidt, he’s got a good chance to continue tormenting a lefty from his past.

MLB oddsas of 8:50 a.m. ET 08/17/2023.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Muncy under 0.5 hits (+107)

What do you get when you combine a high strikeout rate with a high walk rate? A player who might be worth fading on his hits prop.

Muncy fits that bill, with a 22nd-percentile K-rate (26.9%) and a 98th-percentile walk rate (16.0%), per Baseball Savant. Add that up, Muncy has either walked to first base or back to the dugout in 42.9% of plate appearances this year.

That’s a massive chunk of the pie in which recording a hit isn’t a possible outcome.

For the fifth time in eight big-league seasons, Muncy (.195) is at risk of finishing with a batting average below .200. Pretty soon, we might have to think about renaming the Mendoza Line.

For now, though, let’s just call on Muncy to finish hitless for what would be the 11th time in 17 games.

He’ll have a tough customer on the mound tonight in Brewers starter Corbin Burnes, who has a .145 opponent BA over his past eight starts.

Key stat: Muncy is 0-for-6 with three walks and two strikeouts in previous matchups against Burnes.

Quick pick

Goldschmidt over 1.5 bases (-115): It’s been a down year for Goldschmidt relative to his MVP campaign a season ago, but the hard-hitting first baseman is still worth backing on his bases prop when the right matchup comes around.

Historically, Goldschmidt has crushed lefties, positing a .326/.429/.598 slash line against them in his career. Tonight, he’ll face a southpaw who has helped pad those numbers.

Against Mets starter Jose Quintana, Goldschmidt has gone 11-for-17 (.647) with three doubles and three homers.

One final plus: Goldy has gone over 1.5 bases in seven of his past 11 games.