Blue Jays same-game parlay predictions vs. Yankees Sept. 20: Expect King, Gausman to keep scoring down

Toronto won its fourth game in a row on Tuesday at Yankee Stadium, and now it can secure a series win tonight.

The pregame narrative: The Blue Jays haven't won five-plus games in a row since April, and we're not looking at the moneyline for this parlay. Instead, we're teasing up the under, betting on Kevin Gausman to rack up strikeouts and fading Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s bases prop.

MLB oddsas of 8:57 a.m. on 09/20/2023.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees same-game parlay picks

Parlay: Under 9.5 runs + Gausman over 6.5 strikeouts + Guerrero over 0.5 hits (+160)

Under 9.5 runs (-315): Teasing up the under in yesterday's matchup worked out, and we're going back to the well. At this number, the under is 7-1 in games between the Blue Jays and Yankees this year.

That includes both of Gausman's starts against the pinstripes, which came back in April and May. Gausman allowed just two earned runs over 14.0 innings in those games while striking out 21 batters (we'll have more on him later).

This under is 21-8 in Gausman's starts this season.

New York counters with Michael King, who's making a go of it as a starter after spending most of the season in a high-leverage relief role.

In five starts, King has allowed just three earned runs (1.27 ERA) while posting a 12.2 K/9.

Other parlay picks

Gausman over 6.5 Ks (-235): Both of Gausman's outings against the Yankees this season resulted in double-digit strikeouts. We'll play it a little safer in this parlay, though, and seek out a number the right-hander often exceeds.

The AL leader in total strikeouts (222) and K/9 (11.6) has gone over 6.5 Ks in 18 of 29 starts. Gausman has been a bit less successful with that recently because of some abbreviated outings, but he's still hit the over in three of his past five.

We expect efficiency to carry Gausman in this one. He owns a 33.1% K rate against the current Yankees lineup, per Baseball Savant.

Also, the Yankees are a plus matchup for this prop as they rank first in K rate over the past month (26.9%).

Guerrero under 1.5 bases (-195): Coming off an 0-for-5 night at the dish, Guerrero looks like the right guy to fade.

Though he recently homered in three consecutive games, the first baseman has gone under 1.5 bases in eight of his past 13. On the season, he's hit this under in 55.1% of games (81 of 147).

King has been really sharp as a starter, allowing just a .565 opponent OPS. And he's had Vladdy's number, holding the Jays slugger to a 2-for-14 stat line with a triple and four strikeouts.