MLB picks today: Best player prop bets for Sunday, September 3

Rise and shine, MLB bettors. Sunday means a matinee-heavy day of baseball, which means you’ll have to get a move on to get those prop bets in on time. With so many options to choose from amid a full 15-game slate, we’re here to help with three of our favorite plays of the day (all odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook).

MLB player prop bets: Sunday, September 3rd

Aaron Judge, over 1.5 total bases (-120)

We’re bucking the matchup data here: Judge is 0-for-9 with five strikeouts in 12 career plate appearances against Astros righty Cristian Javier. But this version of Javier is hardly the same as the one we’ve seen over the last couple of years, with a 6.25 ERA over 14 starts since June 1. Judge also should match up very well here: Javier is really a two-pitch pitcher against right-handed batters — he uses his fastball and slider almost exclusively — and the reigning AL MVP’s numbers against those pitchers are elite (81% hard-hit rate, 27.9% barrel rate on fastballs from righties; 33% barrel rate on sliders). Judge finally seems to be getting back on track after an injury-plagued summer, with homers in each of his last two games, and I think he does some more damage on Sunday.

Seth Lugo, over 5.5 strikeouts (-120)

Lugo has only cleared this number in two of his last five starts, but given that two of those outings came against the extremely strikeout-averse Dodgers and Marlins, we can give the Padres righty a pass. Prior to that, he closed out July with 7, 8 and 9 Ks, and he gets a great matchup on Sunday against a moribund Giants offense. San Francisco has the league’s worst team OPS against right-handers since the start of August, and more importantly for our purposes here, the eighth-highest K rate. Lugo should work at least into the sixth inning today, which gives him a great chance at clearing six strikeouts.

George Kirby and Chris Sale, over 1.5 walks (+109)

Despite not having walked a single batter since July — and owning the lowest walk rate in the entire league — Kirby’s total is still set at 1.5. The odds there don’t have much juice at all, though, so let’s combine him with another pitcher in Sale who doesn’t hand out a ton of free passes. Despite missing a ton of time with injury, the Red Sox lefty boasts a walk rate in the 79th percentile, and he’ll be facing a Royals team on Sunday that has the fifth-lowest BB rate against lefties since August 1 (just 6.0%). Both of these pitchers figure to be around the strike zone all afternoon, and you can get them as a parlay for plus odds.