Blue Jays prop picks vs. Twins for Game 1 of wild-card series: Bet on Kevin Gausman to shine

The American League strikeout leaders collide for Game 1 of the Toronto Blue Jays' wild-card series vs. the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Kevin Gausman led the AL in punchouts with 237 and Minnesota righty Pablo Lopez was right behind him with 234. Our favourite prop of the day features Gausman, who didn't allow a run over his final two starts of the season.

Check out how we're betting on Toronto's ace in our Blue Jays prop picks vs. the Twins for October 3.

MLB oddsas of 9:48 a.m. ET on 10/03/2023.

Blue Jays prop picks vs. Twins

Best Bet: Gausman over 15.5 outs (-125)

Even for a playoff game, this line is way too light. Gausman is a Cy Young contender who finished 10th in the AL in innings pitched and he'll be throwing on extra rest.

In order for this bet to miss, Gausman would have to complete no more than five innings. That happened eight times in his 31 starts. Two of them occurred in September and another came against the Twins in June. But we're not discouraged by any of that.

Gausman ended the season with 13 scoreless innings in back-to-back starts. Mind you, that came against the Yankees and not the Twins — who ranked first in wRC+ over the final month — but they were essentially must-win games for Toronto.

And manager John Schneider let Gausman ride, something he has done with his starters all year (Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios were three of 10 AL pitchers to throw 185-plus innings). The playoffs can of course change tactical decisions but if Gausman is on there's no one better to turn to.

Setting up a lefty-on-lefty matchup would likely come later, too, so we'd expect Tim Mayza to be deployed in a high-leverage spot that comes in the back third of the game.

If Gausman is dealing, with his swing-and-miss capability, there's little reason to yank him. Once he starts this game, he has already burned himself for the rest of the series.

Gausman did not throw well in two starts versus the Twins this season (though he did clear this line once) and has a poor history of pitching at Target Field. But it's hard to tell whether that is noise and we're electing to believe that it is.

Key stat: Gausman completed 5.1 innings or more in 10 of his final 15 starts.

Quick pick

Gausman over 6.5 Ks (-134): Yes, we're all in on Gausman today. Clearing his outs line will give him a great opportunity to cash this as well. So these bets really go hand in hand.

The Twins can hit but they have extreme strikeout numbers:

• No. 1 in MLB in K rate
• No. 1 vs. RHPs
• No. 3 post-ASG

Ten players on their postseason roster had above-average K rates.

Spencer Strider and Blake Snell were the only pitchers with a higher K% than Gausman, who topped this line in just over 60% of his starts.

That includes 19 times in the 23 outings he threw more than five innings.