MLB Win Totals 2023: Projected Over/Under Wins & Odds

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28 March 2023

MLB Win Totals 2023: Projected Over/Under Wins & Odds

The 2023 MLB season starts on Thursday, and MLB odds again expect the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros to be the best teams in the league, with both clubs given an MLB-high Over/Under line of 95.5 wins this year.

The 2023 MLB season starts Thursday with a whole slew of offseason trades, signings, and new MLB rule changes that have altered the perception of how each team will fare this year.

The ultimate goal, of course, is winning a championship — which is reflected in World Series odds — but if you want to look strictly at betting on a team's regular-season success, MLB win total odds are the way to go.

The MLB odds for all 30 team's win totals are on the board — let's take a look with Opening Day on the horizon.

2023 National League win total odds

NL win total breakdown

Surprise, surprise: The Los Angeles Dodgers lead the NL in projected wins with 95.5. However, this is the third straight year for a declining total in Dodgerland, with the 2022 total being 98.5 wins, after 102.5 projected wins for 2021.

The Dodgers finished with 111 regular-season victories last year, making this year's number quite a dropoff, although it does make some sense with the departure of Trea Turner, his replacement (Gavin Lux) suffering a season-ending injury, and also the extended absence of ace Walker Buehler. LA still has a deep and talented roster, but with a little more reliance on some young (and unproven) talents, there isn't quite as much confidence in all-out Dodger dominance.

Also not helping the LA support is the 2021 World Series champion Atlanta Braves are right behind at 94.5 wins, armed with a deep rotation, and a deep lineup (aided by a healthy Ronald Acuna Jr. and the addition of Sean Murphy), while the Dodgers' division rival San Diego Padres are third at 93.5 wins. The Friars offer a LOADED lineup — led by Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, and Fernando Tatis Jr. (once he returns from suspension), plus they added superstar SS Xander Bogaerts and ageless slugger Nelson Cruz — to go with a deep rotation led by veterans Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove.

Bringing up the rear in the Senior Circuit are the Washington Nationals... by a lot. After going 55-107 last year, the Nats are projected for just 59.5 wins in 2023, with the next biggest losers being the Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies (65.5 wins each) and then the Pittsburgh Pirates at 68.5 wins.

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2023 American League win total odds

AL win total breakdown

It is again familiar faces leading the American League projections, starting with the defending champion Houston Astros at 95.5 wins.

The Astros won 106 games last year but lost ace Justin Verlander, while stalwart Jose Altuve will miss an extended period of time with a broken finger, yet H-Town is still projected to be the best in the AL on the backs of a roster that still has Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and 2022 breakout Jeremy Pena.

The post-Verlander rotation is strongly powered by youth, with Framber Valdez (fifth in Cy Young voting last year) the oldest expected member of the staff, leading talented arms in Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, Hunter Brown, and Jose Urquidy.

Following Houston is a pair of AL East clubs, in the New York Yankees (93.5) and Toronto Blue Jays (91.5). The Bronx Bombers are also moving towards youth, with top prospect Anthony Volpe part of the Opening Day roster, while former top pitching prospect Clarke Schmidt is in the rotation... but that's more a necessity, as Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino, and Nestor Cortes Jr. are all banged up to start the year. However, New York is deep in the lineup, rotation, and bullpen when healthy... the question is how healthy can they be this year?

The Jays don't have major injury concerns, but what was once a slugging-first club went through an offseason makeover to focus more on pitching and defense. Out went fan favorites Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and promising catcher Gabriel Moreno, and in came Daulton Varsho (a better balance of defense and power) along with three-time Gold Glove winner Kevin Keirmaier.

Toronto bolstered the rotation with the addition of Chris Bassitt, while adding Erik Swanson to the bullpen, but despite making as many roster changes as Rogers Centre renovations... the Jays are still expected to again finish right in the neighborhood of 2022's 92-win result.

In the cellar of the Junior Circuit, we have the Oakland A's, with a projection of 60.5 wins that puts them just ahead of the Nats for worst in the league. After the A's we have two other teams with sub-70 projections: The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals, both at 69.5 wins.

How to bet MLB season win totals

Season win totals are pretty straightforward: you're betting on how many wins a team will have that regular season.

Oddsmakers set a projected number of wins for each team — based on past success, returning personnel, and strength of schedule — and offer Over/Under betting options, allowing you to wager on if a team will exceed that win total (Over) or fall short of it (Under). This total does not include postseason games.

On top of the season win total itself, oddsmakers set an assigned cost to the Over and Under bets — also known as vig or juice — depending on the implied probability of the team winning more or less than that total.

For example, the Blue Jays are projected to win 91.5 games but oddsmakers felt like there was a better chance of them winning fewer than 92 games instead of winning 92+ games. Therefore, they set the Jays with a win total of 91.5 but increased the vig on the UNDER to -115 (bet $115 to win $100) and decreased the vig on the OVER to -105 (bet $105 to win $100).

OVER 91.5 WINS (-105)
UNDER 91.5 WINS (-115)

Season win totals are considered futures betting odds and sportsbooks will take action on season win totals from the time they post the odds until the start of the season. Futures bets are then graded at the end of the season when all results are final.