NASCAR All-Star Race Picks, Predictions & Odds 2023

sportsbookreview.com

20 May 2023

NASCAR past and present are set to merge this weekend as the All-Star Race takes place at a restored North Wilkesboro Speedway. While the stars of the Cup Series battle for cash, you too can try to come away a winner. Our NASCAR All-Star Race picks and predictions are here to help.

Believe it or not, we have already reached the midway point of the season as the NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds are taking shape. This weekend, the annual NASCAR All-Star Race will take place at historic North Wilkesboro Speedway.

Sports fans looking for a comparison to this race at North Wilkesboro could liken it to the “Field of Dreams Game” that baseball has put on in the midst of the Iowa cornfields the last couple of years. The last NASCAR race at this 0.625-mile oval happened in 1996. Although standings points won’t be on the line in the All-Star Race this weekend, the winner will receive a hefty check of $1 million.

When it comes to betting strategy, this might very well be the toughest race of the entire season to handicap. First, there is the remarkable unknown of racing at a track that has been silent for over two decades. There is also the unique All-Star Race format to consider. Although NASCAR has simplified the event somewhat compared to previous years, heat races and special rules regarding tire usage in the main 200-lap feature must be considered.

Here are our best bets and 2023 NASCAR All-Star Race picks for Sunday’s event at North Wilkesboro Speedway (odds via FanDuel, DraftKings, and SuperBook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NASCAR All-Star Race best bets

Outright winner: Martin Truex Jr. (+1000 via FanDuel) ⭐
Head-to-head matchup: Kyle Busch (+110 via DraftKings) vs. Ryan Blaney ⭐⭐
Head-to-head matchup: Kyle Larson (-110 via SuperBook) vs. Christopher Bell ⭐⭐

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NASCAR All-Star Race odds

NASCAR All-Star Race picks

Outright winner: Martin Truex Jr. (+1000 via FanDuel) ⭐

Up until last weekend’s race at Darlington, Martin Truex Jr. was one of the hottest drivers in the sport. Unfortunately, a massive wreck ended his Goodyear 400 run prior to the finish of the race. In the five races prior to last week, however, Truex accumulated a win, an additional top-3 finish, and four total results of eighth or better.

One thing that will presumably be a major factor in the NASCAR All-Star Race is tire and equipment management. In the 200-lap main feature, drivers will only be able to take on one set of tires over the final 100 laps.

Truex’s prowess on short tracks speaks for itself. He has been one of the top drivers at tracks such as Martinsville and Richmond over the years. In terms of length, North Wilkesboro falls right between the two. Truex’s strong history at a tire-eating track like Darlington also bodes well for his ability to manage equipment whilst maintaining winning speed.

In terms of betting value, FanDuel is lagging behind many of our best sports betting apps when it comes to outright odds for Truex to win the All-Star Race. A 10-1 price sits as much as two dollars higher than what other shops are currently listing for the No. 19 team.

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Head-to-head matchup: Kyle Busch (+110 via DraftKings) vs. Ryan Blaney ⭐⭐

Another driver with an extensive history of success on short tracks (and pretty much all other racing disciplines for that matter) is Kyle Busch. Rowdy already has two outright wins under his belt through his first 13 races driving for Richard Childress. With the NASCAR All-Star Race taking place at a “new” track, Busch’s adaptability figures to serve him well.

Busch’s counterpart in this driver head-to-head is none other than last year’s All-Star Race winner, Ryan Blaney. Of course, last year’s event was held at Texas Motor Speedway, which is hardly similar to the restored North Wilkesboro track that the drivers will encounter on Sunday night.

While Blaney has compiled several strong runs at short tracks over the years, he has tended to be better earlier on in races than he has toward the end. There are likely multiple reasons for this, including the failure to stay out in front of changing conditions with adjustments.

When it comes to a one-off exhibition race at an unfamiliar track, it’s tough to pass up Busch as a plus-money head-to-head underdog given his versatility and adaptability as a driver.

Head-to-head matchup: Kyle Larson (-110 via SuperBook) vs. Christopher Bell ⭐⭐

Throughout the week leading up to the NASCAR All-Star Race, Kyle Larson was listed as the betting favorite at practically every one of our best sports betting sites. He then proceeded to post the top speed in Friday’s practice session, yet slipped down the oddsboard.

The shift is likely due to a lackluster 10-lap average speed. With long-run speed figuring to be important on Sunday night, the market reacted in favor of other drivers who were stronger in this area of the practice session.

With all of that being said, there have been countless instances where practice session speeds and times do not correlate to success on race day. Furthermore, this is still Kyle Larson we are talking about. Bad luck alone has prevented him from accumulating a whole lot more than the single race win he has so far this season.

Across from Larson in this betting matchup is Christopher Bell, who posted the third-fastest 10-lap average speed during practice. Both drivers have been running well through the first 13 races of the year, but Larson has clearly been a step ahead most weeks.

Market pricing also plays a factor in the decision to pursue this prop. While Larson and Bell are listed at identical -110 odds at SuperBook, DraftKings actually has Larson priced as a -120 favorite in this matchup.

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