NASCAR at Bristol odds, predictions, start time: Model shares surprising 2024 Food City 500 picks, leaderboard
The 2024 Food City 500 will take place on Sunday at Bristol Motor Speedway. After three seasons of converting the iconic track to dirt for this event, the NASCAR Cup Series will revert to concrete this year. The green flag is scheduled to drop at 3:30 p.m. ET and is scheduled for 500 laps around the 0.533-mile oval that has been a fixture on the NASCAR schedule since 1961. It's the only track on the current NASCAR schedule with two pit roads, so pit strategy is always essential at Bristol.
Denny Hamlin is a three-time winner at "The Last Great Coliseum" and the 5-1 co-favorite with Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Christopher Bell in the 2024 Food City 500 odds. They're followed by Kyle Larson at 21-4 and defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Ryan Blaney at 11-1 in the 2024 NASCAR at Bristol odds. Before scouring the 2024 Food City 500 starting lineup and making any 2024 NASCAR at Bristol predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Food City 500 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas.
Then it called its first winner of the 2024 season with Larson in Las Vegas again two weeks ago, scoring a 21-5 payout for SportsLine subscribers. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 16 winners since 2021, including nine last year alone. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Top 2024 Food City 500 predictions
For the 2024 Food City 500, the model is high on Martin Truex Jr., even though he's a 22-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Bristol odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 43-year-old enters the weekend sitting third in the NASCAR standings and is coming off a three-win season in 2023 that brought his career tally in the NASCAR Cup Series to 34.
The 2017 NASCAR Cup Series champion has six career wins on short tracks and multiple top-three finishes at Bristol Motor Speedway. Joe Gibbs Racing swept the two Bristol races last season (one was on dirt) and has been the dominant force on short tracks for years in NASCAR, which is a big reason why the model sees value in Truex.
Another massive shocker: Christopher Bell, one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 Food City 500 starting lineup. Bell was a winner at Bristol Motor Speedway on the dirt last spring and only one of his seven career wins in the NASCAR Cup Series has come on a short track.
Bell has led 330 laps in the last two races on concrete at Bristol, but failed to take the checkered flag on both occasions and the model doesn't see value on Bell as one of the betting favorites. Even with Joe Gibbs Racing's success at Bristol historically, Fords have won three of the last five races there on concrete. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 NASCAR at Bristol picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2024 NASCAR Bristol odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Food City 500 2024, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Bristol odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Bristol leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 16 winners.
2024 Food City 500 odds, drivers, lineup
Denny Hamlin 5-1Christopher Bell 5-1Kyle Larson 21-4Ryan Blaney 11-1Brad Keselowski 12-1William Byron 12-1Tyler Reddick 12-1Chris Buescher 12-1Ty Gibbs 12-1Kyle Busch 15-1Ross Chastain 20-1Joey Logano 20-1Chase Elliott 20-1Martin Truex Jr. 22-1Erik Jones 40-1Bubba Wallace 40-1Alex Bowman 45-1Michael McDowell 50-1Chase Briscoe 60-1Noah Gragson 60-1Carson Hocevar 70-1Daniel Suarez 80-1Josh Berry 100-1Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-1Austin Dillon 150-1John Hunter Nemechek 175-1A.J. Allmendinger 200-1Austin Cindric 200-1Corey Lajoie 200-1Ryan Preece 250-1Todd Gilliland 500-1Daniel Hemric 750-1Zane Smith 1000-1Justin Haley 1000-1Harrison Burton 1000-1
