NASCAR at COTA odds and picks: A Kimi Räikkönen cameo, A.J. Allmendinger a ‘smart pick’ and more

1. Last week we asked about Jimmie Johnson appearing in some races. This is one of them. He’ll be joined by F1 champs Jenson Button and Kimi Räikkönen, who are seasoned road course drivers. Is there any reason to look deeper into these drivers? Maybe even as a top 10?

Jeff: It’s very reasonable to think Räikkönen could get a top 10 after his performance at Watkins Glen last summer, when he seemed headed for that type of a result before getting caught up in a wreck. We’re not as sure about Button as we haven’t seen him in a stock car yet, but you can’t underestimate an F1 champ who is highly capable of getting around a road course. If you can find plus-odds on either of those drivers to finish in the top 10, it’s worth a shot. I’m not as confident about Johnson; he’s never raced at COTA before and hasn’t been on a road course in a stock car since 2020.

Jordan: That Räikkönen has experience on a road course in a Next Gen car gives him a leg over the other notables making cameo appearances this weekend. Räikkönen adapted adapted fairly quickly last year at Watkins Glen, and may have finished in the top 10 had be not been collected in a wreck not of his own doing. Maybe Taylor and Button will also get up to speed quickly, and it helps a practice has been added for Friday, but let’s give the edge to Räikkönen because this won’t be a totally new thing for him.

2. As far as this week’s odds to win go, there’s the usual cast of characters up top and then A.J. Allmendinger with the 5th-best odds at 10-to-1. Are we at all tempted to jump on that?

Jeff: Allmendinger nearly won the COTA race last year as a part-time Cup driver before getting taken out by Ross Chastain on the last lap. Now he’s in a full-time effort and, if he wins one of the five regular-season road course races, he will put his Kaulig Racing team into the playoffs. You can bet Allmendinger will absolutely be going all-out to try and snatch a playoff spot as soon as possible, and this is his first opportunity. He should have higher odds, so this seems like a decent value.

Jordan: Allmendinger is a great play this weekend. He’s one of the best in NASCAR on road courses and, as Jeff noted, nearly won here last year before contact with Ross Chastain took him out. Allmendinger is such a smart pick it’s surprising the oddsmakers don’t have him listed in single digits.

3. Who is your long shot pick to win this race?

Jeff: It’s hard to imagine a major upset at a road course, especially with the rules changing for this weekend. Stage breaks are being removed, which will undoubtedly alter the strategy and potentially create some long, green-flag runs which would allow the top talents to shine through. That said, the lowest I can go on odds for a “longshot” is Chris Buescher at +2500. I put “longshot” in quotes because those are actually the 13th-best odds. But Buescher is a capable road course racer who had a shot to win at Sonoma last season until Daniel Suarez eventually pulled away. You could make an argument for Jordan Taylor at +3300, since he’s an IMSA champion who is getting into one of the fastest cars (Chase Elliott’s No. 9). But he’s never made a NASCAR national series start, so can he really just jump into a race and win? That seems like a very tall order.

Jordan:Blaney at 20-1 has great value as he’s underrated on road courses and him winning Sunday would shock no one. And what about Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr., each of whom is on the board at 25-1. Those are good odds for two drivers who know how to get around a road course very well.

4. Looking at the odds to win the Cup Series championship, it’s still Kyle Larson and William Byron up top despite being docked 100 points for part modification violations. What’s the actual effect these penalties had on the drivers? Was there really anything at all?

Jeff: First of all, we still can’t be sure these penalties are stick. With the penalties under appeal, there’s a chance they could be overturned. Second, it’s clear the parts that were taken (hood louvers) had nothing to do with Hendrick’s speed. If the penalties do remain in place, it will certainly affect them in terms of playoff points and perhaps force the drivers to win their way through various rounds of the playoffs. But people are still looking at the Hendrick cars as the fastest in the field, which is why Elliott still has the fourth-best championship odds despite being sidelined with a broken leg.

Jordan: Despite the penalties, Hendrick should still get at least three of its drivers in the playoffs. The only reason for the hedge on why all four may not qualify is because we still don’t know for sure when Elliott is going to return and how healthy he’ll be upon returning. Assuming he’s close to 100 percent when he comes back, he’ll have ample time to snag a win. But, let’s not assume. Nonetheless, the real on Hendrick will occur come the playoffs where the loss of precious playoff points could likely mean the difference between advancing out of a round and elimination.

NOOB QUESTIONS OF THE WEEK

Josh Williams is our new favorite NASCAR driver. And even after reading about the incident, we have a couple questions:

1. He had debris flying off his car, so wasn’t NASCAR a liiiiiiiittle bit right to say “just stop racing, you can’t fix your car correctly?” Or is this a common occurrence?

Gluck: Debris flies off cars all the time. Typically, if there’s an issue, NASCAR might black-flag the car to make them come into the pits and fix their damage. But to park them for the day, just for debris? That’s almost unheard of, despite being in the rulebook. It certainly feels like the reason Williams was targeted was because he caused another yellow flag in a caution-filled race, and NASCAR was frustrated over it.

Bianchi: By the definition of the rulebook, NASCAR didn’t do anything wrong. But it does feel like NASCAR overreacted to the debris coming off the car due to the numerous cautions that were slowing the race. As for what Williams did by parking then walking across a hot track, it’s hard to criticize NASCAR for sending a message that its orders must he followed.

2. What are the chances Williams gets a sponsor and finds a ride in the next Cup Series race to capitalize on his fame and charity work?

Gluck: None of the big teams would accommodate that scenario (their seats are filled and a Williams sponsor likely wouldn’t bring enough money to run an extra car), but it’s not impossible he could run for B.J. McLeod Motorsports (which he did three times last year in the No. 78 car). That said, any funding Williams would attract from this entire situation would likely go toward making his current ride (the No. 92 Xfinity Series car) more competitive rather than trying to parlay it into a backmarker Cup start.

Bianchi: Maybe some sponsor comes along and throws a ton of money at Williams propelling to a better opportunity with a bigger team. Unfortunately, this feels unlikely. More likely is this attention leads to some additional funding for his current team, DGR Racing.

3. Should I invest in his trading card?

Gluck: No, I wouldn’t. In his current situation, Williams isn’t going to suddenly start winning races or become a playoff contender. He’s a very capable driver, but he’s also an old-school grinder who is going to physically work on his underfunded equipment during the week instead of fly around making flashy sponsor appearances. In other words, he won’t be driving for Hendrick Motorsports. So while a beloved figure in the Xfinity garage, this might be the most you ever hear about him. From that sense, buying his card now might be peak prices.

Bianchi: Um….You’re asking this question to the wrong person. Cards are not my forte.