NASCAR at Indianapolis road course odds: Chris Buescher’s three-peat chances, a long shot pick and more
NASCAR heads to Indy this week for a road race, which means the return of Shane van Gisbergen! It also may mess up Chris Buescher’s chances at a three-peat, it provides a stage for a NASCAR debut on Michael Jordan’s team… and more! Our experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, answered our burning questions below.
1. Maybe this is a noob question, but was there any way at all for us to have seen Chris Buescher’s emergence coming?
Jeff: Not to this degree. Even team owner Brad Keselowski seemed fairly stunned after the race to see RFK Racing’s cars (himself and Buescher) suddenly make such huge gains. They’ve both been playoff cars all season and are running respectably, but winning? In a season when Ford cars overall have been off the pace a bit? This is a pretty remarkable turnaround for a team that hasn’t been winning much over the last decade.
Jordan: Buescher has long been perpetually overlooked and rarely been with a team where winning consistently was an obtainable goal. So seeing that RFK Racing has made tremendous performance gains, it’s allowed Buescher to showcase his talent. So from that perspective, no, it’s not that big of a surprise. What is surprising is that RFK has emerged as the best Ford-backed team, a development few foresaw.
2. Buescher is now 18-1 to win the Cup Series title. Is this something we should consider the way he’s won the last two weeks at different courses and had good finishes at Talladega and Daytona?
Jeff: You can start to build the case for a deep playoff run, but even a final four appearance still feels like a stretch. A lot of things would have to go right, and we’re still looking at a pretty small sample size of running up front. That said, if he can keep doing this at a variety of tracks, then nothing is out of the question.
Jordan: A championship feels a bit unrealistic as we need to see more from Buescher and the No. 17 over a prolonged stretch to think he’s ready to compete against title favorites Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin and others, all of whom have shown more high level consistency than Buescher. But a deep playoff feels on the table should RFK keep up the form it’s shown this summer, because if this occurs Buescher has the ability to make some noise as the playoff schedule sets in his favor featuring some of his best tracks.
3. Legacy has supposedly tagged road course stud Mike Rockenfeller for the next two races…both road courses. Can he have two good races and cause some chaos in the results? And if so, will he stick or will they mix and match drivers going forward?
Jeff: Legacy is having a pretty miserable season overall. Yes, Rockenfeller got a ton of seat time in the Garage 56 car (both at Le Mans and in testing beforehand), but that doesn’t mean he can take a Next Gen and go win with it. If he runs in the top 15, that would seem like a very impressive outing. Last year, Rockenfeller finished 30th at Watkins Glen and 29th at the Charlotte Roval while racing for Spire Motorsports.
Jordan: If you’re wanting to take a flyer on a “road course ringer” this weekend, there are better options than Rockenfeller considering Legacy is in the midst of a rebuild to where its performance has been up and down throughout the season.
4. Who do we like to win at Indy?
Jeff: It’s Tyler Reddick (+500) for me. The Circuit of the Americas winner appears to be the best road racer in the series right now and won this same race at Indy last season from the pole. I’d expect him to be very strong again this weekend. That said, who knows what we can expect from Shane van Gisbergen in his return?
Jordan: Reddick is terrific on road courses and him going back-to-back would surprise no one. And there are probably a dozen drivers who you could make a reasonable case for picking. But from this viewpoint, AJ Allmendinger is the choice. He won this race in 2021, is terrific on road courses and comes in knowing that Indy represents a great chance to get a win and lock himself into the playoffs. He certainly won’t be lacking motivation.
5. Who can pull an upset at Indy?
Jeff: This is a fantastic race for potential upset picks, as there are some drivers with long odds who should be able to contend. I absolutely would not overlook Kamui Kobayashi, who is making his NASCAR debut for 23XI Racing, but is going to be extremely fast despite his odds listed at +4000. And Chase Briscoe (+6000) has had a bummer of a season, but he’s a really good road course racer who had a shot to win the inaugural Indy road race in 2021.
Jordan: As Jeff noted, there are plenty of good “longshot” picks to choose from this weekend. Beyond the names Jeff mentioned, Michael McDowell is +3000; Penske teammates Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney, both strong on road courses, are each sitting at +4000; and Alex Bowman is +6000. These are some notable names who have head-scratching long odds.
NOOB question of the week: When someone like Kyle Larson wins a dirt race, does he keep the prize money or bonus his crew or something? And do the regular dirt racers like that kind of stuff because it ups their profile or not because NASCAR rich guys come in and take their shots at trophies and prize money?
Jeff: Larson doesn’t own his own dirt cars, so he has to split the money with the team when he wins. Yes, he stands there with the big check, but a lot of it is going to the team owner. And he gets a lot of big checks. But dirt racers definitely recognize the attention Larson brings to their series, which increases attendance and viewership and thus ups the purses they’re all racing for. Sure, they’d like to beat him, but they also know they’re racing against perhaps the most talented American driver of his generation. It might be different if he wasn’t one of them, but Larson has always been a dirt guy and never abandoned his roots.
