NASCAR at Phoenix expert predictions: Odds to win, long shots and simmering rivalries

NASCAR heads to Phoenix this weekend (Sunday, March 10, 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX) for its second intermediate-track race of the season, the Shriners Children’s 500. Last week’s race in Vegas was the first intermediate track of the 2024 Cup Series and thus our first chance to see drivers on a “normal” track — giving clues to the shape of the season.

Right now, that shape is taking the form of Kyle Larson, who owned most of the race and vaulted to the top of the Cup Series standings. But this is not Max Verstappen’s Formula 1, and Larson and Chevy’s dominant days may be limited with the new Toyota and Ford cars showing potential for gaining more speed over the coming months.

All that and more in our Q&A today with NASCAR experts Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi. Each week, Jeff and Jordan tell us their favorites to win the race, pick long shots and demystify the inner workings of the NASCAR world.

So let’s get into it!

Before Vegas, you didn’t include Kyle Larson in your power rankings, but Jeff, you did pick him to win the Pennzoil in our Q&A (Congrats!) Should we be looking for Larson to go on a heater after that dominant Vegas performance, or is it a matter of time before the new Toyota catches up?

Jeff: I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Larson wins two of the next three races. Actually, I don’t think anyone would. What we learned from Vegas is while the other manufacturers may need time to get up to speed with their new cars, the Chevrolets can already lean on their notes and hone their setups from last season. That will probably be an advantage again this weekend, even though a new short-track rules package for everyone is in effect for the first time.

Jordan: How Larson won Sunday by sweeping all the stages — leading the most laps and being mistake-free — should alarm the field. It’s the kind of dominance he flexed often during his 2021 championship season and the kind that he and the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports team are capable of nearly every single week. Seeing Larson string together several of these types of victories during this spring stretch — with races at several of his best tracks — is very much on the table.

Speaking of the new Toyota, Vegas was our first look at how the new Ford and Toyota cars might fare this year. You said in your race recap that Toyota performed well (with two cars in the top five), and they’re still weeks away from developing a proper “aero map” to maximize speed. I guess the question here is: Tell us more about that process and whether Chevy should be worried — or what changes they can make if Toyota really is as dominant as it looks?

Jeff: The bottom line is Toyota and Ford have more speed to gain, at least in theory, than the Chevy cars. It’s very hard to find major advantages with the Next Gen car because they’re all the same. So when we’re talking about a new car and the aerodynamic differences it can bring, you would think they have a higher ceiling for extracting speed than Chevy does at the moment.

Jordan: It’s all about learning how the redesigned car reacts to race conditions and then what changes are needed to improve upon it. Now that crew chiefs and engineers have an actual race on a “normal” track to use as a template, they can go to work imparting their wisdom to make it better. In the long-term, the Chevy camp should be concerned, as there is only so much left to do to make its Camaro faster.

Who do you like to win this week in Phoenix?

Jeff: Sorry to be boring, but why would people bet against Ross Chastain here? The championship was only four races ago, and Chastain became the first driver to beat the Championship 4 in the season finale since this playoff format was introduced. Could he run it back? It certainly seems doable.

Jordan: Given how fast both were in Las Vegas and typically are at Phoenix, it’s hard to pick against Hendrick teammates Larson and William Byron. But also don’t overlook the Toyotas, as the manufacturer is confident that its Camry will unload with speed.

Odds from BetMGM.

Any long shots you like this week?

Jeff: I just mentioned above that Chastain would be my pick to win. Well, he’s in the same car as a driver — Daniel Suarez — who is +10000. That seems way too high, so perhaps there’s some value there.

Jordan: Even amid its recent downturn, flat tracks like Phoenix have still been a style oval that Stewart-Haas Racing Ford has had success on. This, combined with the unexpected speed SHR flashed at Las Vegas, makes picking Chase Briscoe an enticing dark horse on Sunday. And let’s remember, Briscoe’s lone Cup win occurred in this race two years ago.

Odds from BetMGM.

What should we know about the track at Phoenix?

Jeff: This track has the craziest restarts in NASCAR because drivers all fan out across the track and try to cut off part of a corner (there’s no out-of-bounds line). That can create some thrilling moments, although the rest of the race is often dry once they get sorted out.

Jordan: Long green-flag runs are common here, so avoiding miscues on pit road is critical. It’s hard to overcome penalties that set you laps behind. This season, we’ve seen several drivers and teams struggle with this issue, and it is likely that this will continue on Sunday.

We have to ask: You just did back-to-back interviews with Corey LaJoie and Erik Jones, who have had beef, if not fully cooked at least simmering, in the past. Jones clearly aimed to put that to rest. Any other good rivalries brewing this season?

Jeff: This could be the kind of track where Joey Logano and Ty Gibbs find themselves running close together and have another collision, as they did last month at the Clash. That beef doesn’t seem to be squashed yet.

Jordan: Blaney vs. Chastain is worth monitoring. Here in November, Blaney became upset with how Chastain raced him, believing he almost cost him the championship. Then, last Sunday, they had another flare-up. It’s unlikely this manifests itself beyond two guys who don’t like racing one another, but the potential is there, considering the frequency in which both run up front.

NOOB question of the week: You shared an interesting graphic in your Vegas recap that showed that the Cup Series has the lowest percentage of drivers who lead the most laps win the race (compared to other motorsports leagues). Can you explain more why the dominant car wins in the Cup Series just 39 percent of the time as opposed to, say, the IndyCar Series at 61 percent? How does this factor into your predictions?

Jeff: NASCAR has some wacky rules that are designed to keep the field closer. There are pre-planned breaks during the race, double-file restarts that take away the leader’s advantage and multiple attempts at “overtime” when there’s a late race caution. The more shots you give the field at playing a different strategy or just outright beating the leader on a restart (the cars are very even, after all), the more chances there are that the best car won’t actually win.

Jordan: Few forms of motorsports have a closer level of competition than NASCAR, so rarely does the fastest car completely run away from the field like what transpires in F1 and IndyCar. NASCAR-specific elements like stage breaks and its higher number of caution flags further make it difficult for the faster car to win with great frequency. Such parity is welcome in comparison to someone pulling a Max Verstappen every single week.