NASCAR Odds, Roval: Why Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott need a win

Don’t expect a quiet Sunday afternoon. There’s a lot at stake with a lot of guys in need of a win or at least a good finish. In bad need.

And not a whole lot of elbow room in the passing areas of Charlotte’s Roval.

But let’s not expect a repeat of last weekend’s drama

Back in the garage following that race, Matt Crafton “hand delivered” a message of discontent to fellow racer Nick Sanchez. 

Sanchez responded with something along the lines of, “Well now, that was quite unsuspected, and you may now prepare for eventual retaliation, ol’ chap. Let’s meet again in Homestead.”

Or something like that.

Not sure how far it’ll progress, but expect some hard and hurt feelings at Charlotte Motor Speedway, as another playoff round closes and leaves four drivers, and their teams, thinking of what could’ve been if only that so-and-so had given us a little more room in Turn 9.

The obvious drama, from a pre-race perspective, involves the bubble boys — Brad Keselowski, who sits on the playoff cutline in eighth place, and Tyler Reddick, who’s just two points behind Kez. 

Tyler is excellent on road courses.

Kez isn't.

But some others — Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain — are within range of racing into the top eight spots. That obviously means some more others — such as Martin Truex and Kyle Larson, along with Kez — are within range of falling out. 

If you’re wagering, don’t expect a big payout. On road courses, unlike last week’s superspeedway offering at ’Dega, we have a better idea of who can run up front and give themselves a shot to win. Some drivers are so much better at road racing, the favorites are clearer.

But the odds therefore come down. Potentially bigger paydays are available, but you have to know where to look. And then hope.

The Faves: The usual suspects, starting with Chase Elliott

Chase Elliott +600; William Byron +650; Tyler Reddick +700; Michael McDowell +900; Kyle Larson +900; AJ Allmendinger +1,000

This sure feels like the last legitimate shot for Chase to win one in 2023 and rescue a bit of decency from this lost season. After this, all Hendrick resources are aimed at Larson and Billy the Kid.

Kyle Busch’s Hail Mary

Martin Truex +1,200; Kyle Busch +1,500; Denny Hamlin +1,800; Daniel Suarez +1,800; Ty Gibbs +2,000

Busch has finished fourth and third in the past two Roval runs, but that was in a Gibbs Toyota. Right now, his Childress Chevy is grasping. Or is it gasping? Kyle has to win Sunday to stay in the championship race.

One road-course ace in this group, and it’s not Kevin Harvick

Chris Buescher +2,200; Ryan Blaney +2,800; Joey Logano +2,800; Kevin Harvick +3,000; Austin Cindric +3,000; Alex Bowman +3,500

Harvick hasn’t won on a road course since 2017 at Sonoma, but he was runner-up on the Roval last year. Meanwhile, a roadie seems like a good place for Cindric to salvage something.

Some others, including a couple ringers

Brad Keselowski +6,500; Bubba Wallace +10,000; Mike Rockenfeller +25,000; Andy Lally +100,000

Sports-car moonlighters Andy Lally (Rick Ware Racing) and Mike Rockenfeller (Legacy Motor Club) might get in the mix at some point. Or might not.

Gimme Props

◾ The bet-with-the-heart crowd likes Chase Elliott so much, he’s -125 for a top-5 and just +175 for a top-3.

◾ AJ is due, and he’s +275 for a top-3 and +150 for a top-5.

◾ Alex Bowman is a good little road racer, and he’s at +1,000 (top-3) and +450 (top-5).

◾ Ross Chastain vs. Joey Logano are both -115 head-to-head. I like Joey here because I think Ross The Boss will be pressing and hasn’t been good very often this year.

◾ Chevrolet at -105, Toyota at +235, and Ford at +250 are the manufacturer numbers. That Chevy number seems absurdly low, but my track record here suggests I shouldn’t critique.

Last Week

For some reason, I jumped the gun on Tyler Reddick to win Talladega instead of keeping him in reserve until this week on a road course. 

And to make sure I didn’t recover any wagered funds, I also took the Toyota manufacturer prop with the other $50.

Ryan Blaney won it.

In a Ford.

This Week

Reddick needs a good finish and a modest amount of good fortune to move from ninth into the top eight in order to advance in the playoffs.

Why take chances with Lady Luck? I say, yes, I was indeed a week early with Reddick. Put my $50 win allowance on Tyler. At +700, I’m thinking the $50 offering will return about $350. How’s that for math?

For the prop, let’s gamble a bit. Alex Bowman has a pair of top-5s in his past four road races. Make it three, and go ahead and make it a top-3 at +1,000, which would return $500, thank you very much.