NASCAR at Richmond expert analysis and odds: Do simulations work? Austin Dillon a darkhorse and more
Jeff: Reddick is a clear standout on road courses at the moment, and he can also excel at oval tracks where drivers have the option to run up against the wall. In general, those are some of the very few opportunities in NASCAR for a driver to distinguish himself from the rest of the field. Otherwise, most of the races come down to track position, restarts and having a dominant car. Reddick will be the favorite when NASCAR races on a road course again (June at Sonoma), but that doesn’t mean his win at COTA will translate everywhere else.
Jordan: With all but one of Reddick’s four career wins having come on a road course, it’s easy to view him as someone only at his best on a track where he has to turn left and right. But that is a discredit to a driver who’s an A‐level talent and is just now coming into his own in his fourth full season. Last year, he was in contention for wins at several ovals including Fontana, Bristol dirt, Kansas (both races) and Las Vegas (fall), and while Texas was his only oval win that had more to do with circumstances beyond Reddick’s control. This is a long way of saying don’t be surprised when Reddick becomes someone who’s winning with greater frequency, regardless of the style track NASCAR is visiting that week.
2. Reddick credited sim sessions and iRacing for his win in this week’s Top 5. Byron credited them for some of his early success this year, too. What percentage of drivers are doing this? And why wouldn’t everyone do it, at this point? And is there simming being done for this week by drivers right now? (for those of us intrigued by the sims, on the Ford simulator)
Jeff: There’s no clear consensus in the garage for this one. As you mentioned, Byron and Reddick have both credited the use of the high-end simulators housed at their respective manufacturers’ tech centers. But other drivers feel the sim sessions can lead them down the wrong road with setup information and ideas for a race weekend. Ryan Blaney, for example, told me last fall he was not going to run a sim session to prepare for the Bristol night race. “I won’t do it,” he said. “The sim is good for me for road courses, and that’s what I mainly use it for. (Places like) Bristol, it’s relying on past experience and open-mindedness for seeing what this car is going to do at that place.” Of course, that was during a season when the Next Gen car hadn’t visited tracks for the first time yet; maybe there’s more of a case to be made now for leaning on sim sessions.
Jordan: Every driver has their opinion on whether time in the simulator translates to success on a real‐world track, but the consensus is that road courses are where you can pick up the most in a sim. It’s particularly helpful learning braking points, sightlines and corner entry points amid a time when on most race weekends NASCAR is limiting practice to just a single truncated session. Whether there is anything to be learned in a sim for an oval track depends on assorted variables, but it does help provide at least a baseline setup going into a race.
3. Is there such a thing as momentum in NASCAR? Or is it impossible because the course types change so often and play to varied strengths? Reddick is 18-to-1 and in the middle of odds for Richmond; the usual favorites are Byron and Larson. If Reddick didn’t win last week, would he have been 22-1? Or was he always going to be 18-1 here?
Jeff: Reddick might have gotten a little bump from winning last week, but he was never going to be one of the favorites for Richmond (where he has no top-10s in five career starts). Overall though, momentum is a difficult beast to wrestle in NASCAR. As you suggested, it’s due to the changing track types. Last week was a road course, but now there won’t be another one for two and a half months. The Las Vegas race on a 1.5-mile oval earlier this month might have showed who has strength on intermediate tracks, but now there isn’t another one until May 7 (Kansas). With such a variation in track type, it’s difficult to find consistency from week to week unless a team is just that much faster than the field.
Jordan: From this perspective, momentum is about the confidence that winning and running well consistently instills in a team where they know if they are on their game they are good enough to beat anyone. If a team feels confident in what they’re doing leading into a race that often translates to success on Sundays.
4. Who is a long shot you like this week?
Jeff: It’s going to be difficult for any longshot to win at Richmond, which should be a track that favors the usual suspects. I’d be hesitant to pick a driver outside of Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing or Team Penske (although Kyle Busch or Kevin Harvick could get it done as well). That said, it might be at least worth taking at look at Aric Almirola (+6000), who counts Richmond as his best track (with a minimum of three starts) in terms of average finish (14.9). Almirola also has eight top-10s at Richmond, more than any track except for Talladega (nine).
Jordan: A name to watch Sunday is Austin Dillon. The Richard Childress Racing driver has five top‐10 finishes in the past eight Richmond races, including a near win in the fall 2020 race. It’s also not a reach to think new RCR teammate Kyle Busch, whose six Richmond wins leads all active drivers, will help Dillon better figure the Virginia short track.
NOOB QUESTION OF THE WEEK
The question askers here have not been shy about our love for Daniel Suárez. And Ross Chastain ruined a possible win for us. They’re teammates and he was steamed at Chastain after – is this now going to simmer all season? Or have they made up? And is Chastain now our enemy?
Jeff: Personally, I don’t think Chastain ruined the potential win.
…the question askers here have not been shy about our love for Daniel Suárez. And Ross Chastain ruined didn’t ruin a possible win for us. They’re teammates and he was steamed at Chastain after – is this now going to simmer all season? Or have they made up? And is Chastain now our enemy?
Jeff: It was already gone as soon as the caution came out, which then triggered the whole sequence of chaotic restarts and tossed a possible fuel mileage race out the window. Chastain races hard. but was doing what everyone else does on late-race restarts at road courses; from this view, Suárez overreacted out of frustration. Surely though, the feud will be quickly extinguished since teammates need to work together in an information exchange for both to run well.
Jordan: Both drivers know last week was a chaotic race where contact was near unavoidable during the sequence of late restarts, and anything that transpired between them was not deliberate. It would’ve been one thing Chastain intentionally shoved Suárez out of the way, but that didn’t happen; Suárez was just in the wrong spot at the wrong time when Chastain got into Alex Bowman. Any of the bad blood that festered at COTA should subside by the time the green flag waves on Sunday.
