GEICO 500 Odds, Picks & Predictions 2023

NASCAR heads south to Lincoln, Alabama, for the tenth race of the 2023 season. Talladega Superspeedway is a 2.66-mile super speedway track with 12-degree turns. The race distance totals almost 500miles (188 laps). Will the track of wrecks slow down the race like last year’s version?

This weekend’s race is a week after the NOCO 400 where Kyle Larson did not get bumped out of the running. Yes, Larson found a way to hold off the field and get win number one on the season. Now, Talladega is a track with huge 32-34 degree banks and even a 16.5-degree tri-oval.

The table below lists the complete slate of NASCAR Cup Series odds for the GEICO 500 at Talladega (win, podium finish, and top-five finish). Under the table, find the Talladega predictions and best bets for this weekend’s NASCAR action.

GEICO 500 Odds

Joey Logano enters this race as a +1000 favorite to win, followed by Ryan Blaney (+1100) then Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott at +1200.  This track feels like a centrifuge and those banked turns create their own havoc.

NASCAR drivers start those engines on the 2.66-mile, 60-60-68 stage lap setup when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning again around 3:00 pm ET on FOX.

Odds as of April 18th at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Yes, Kyle Larson, the Hendrick Motorsports Racing driver, started well, then came back, and won the NOCO 400 in pretty easy fashion. Larson has never won at Talladega but does have a top-five result. Drivers like Chase Elliott have won the race before. This is one of the few tracks where everyone seems to lead a decent number of laps but nothing outrageous.

So, the Caesars Sportsbook odds fire in some subtle differences. For one, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano are co-favorites at +1000. That breaks down to the two Chevy’s, one Toyota, and two Ford’s. Yes,  Denny Hamlin, William Byron, and Chase Elliott are contenders.

GEICO 500 Recent Winners

What to Expect on Sunday?

With the Ford cars on the prowl early people forgot how good the Toyota cars were in the Spring.  As a result, NASCAR Cup Series odds rides with Ford (first two drivers) but the Chevy’s of Byron and Elliott are right there. Finally, Denny Hamlin has the ability to win this race too.

Correlation is weird at Talladega. It’s a unique superspeedway where experience is vital along with simply avoiding “the big ones.” The last two winners have started outside the top eight. It is often who ends faster who wins and not who starts off quick.

Saturday qualifying expects to start at 10:30 am ET.

GEICO 500 at Talladega Predictions & Picks

So, Saturday may be an issue for qualifying. Sunday afternoon expects to see tranquil and cooler weather. Again, watch that rain on Friday night into Saturday morning as it may be heavy at times.

Qualifying again could be dicey, Expect a three-way battle with Chevy and Toyota potentially having an upper hand late. Cooler temperatures in the 60’s on Sunday will create some Spring weather conditions.

Could this end up like last Spring where Chevy and Toyota ruled the evening as the Ford’s faded late? That is possible. Expect the unexpected however. Chase Elliott could contend but winning seems out of the cards this weekend.

Like we mentioned, the weather could impact qualifying but not race day.

• Top Pick:  Denny Hamlin to Win (+1200)
• Other Contenders: William Byron (+1400), Christopher Bell (+1800), Ross Chastain. (+1400), Ryan Blaney (+1100)
• Longer shots:  Chris Buescher (+2200), Tyler Reddick (+2200), Martin Truex Jr. (+3000)