NASCAR Betting Guide: EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix
Find me a sicker entry list than the one we get for this weekend's Cup Series race at the Circuit of the Americas. I dare you.
It'll be a pointless endeavor because this puppy is loaded. Not only do you have the Cup regulars, but you're adding in Jimmie Johnson, Kimi Raikkonen, Jenson Button, and Jordan Taylor, who have combined to win seven Cup championships, two Formula 1 driver titles, and three IMSA SportsCar Championships.
That's not to mention Haas F1 Team Principal Guenther Steiner, who will be in the broadcast booth, keeping the FCC on its toes at all times.
Because of this, we're gonna have a blast on Sunday regardless. The race should be entertaining all on its own.
That's a good thing because there's not a ton of value to be had in the betting markets right now.
In this era of NASCAR, we get six road-course races per year. That's a big sample to help us decide who is best able to handle all the twists and turns.
On top of that, the manufacturer that dominated road courses last year -- Chevy -- has gotten off to a blazing start in 2023.
So, things are pretty thin out there. As a result, I'm fine largely holding off on outrights until we see practice on Friday. Sportsbooks haven't been perfect at handling practice and qualifying data this year, so I'm waiting to pick off values after the fact.
With that said, there are some good top-10 bets that I like in FanDuel Sportsbook's betting odds for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix. Let's run through those now, and we can circle back on outrights and other markets later in the week.
Michael McDowell to Finish Top 10 (+165)
Last year was the first time we got to see Michael McDowell in somewhat even equipment with the field on a road course, and buddy went to work. Bookmakers are still skeptical of him, but I'm not.
In six road-course races, McDowell had four top-10 finishes (all eighth or better), and he had an eighth-place average running position in one of the exceptions. He was legitimately in contention almost every time.
As a result, my model shows value on McDowell to win at +3000. I'm okay slow-playing that one while being receptive to adding it post-practice. The top-10 mark, though, seems unlikely to stick around.
McDowell qualified seventh or better in four of the six races, including two runs inside the top five. He's likely to be fast right away, and if that happens, his betting odds will shorten. I want to get in front of that.
My model has McDowell in the top 10 48.9% of the time, up from 37.7% implied. That's a big edge, so I'm not going to risk missing out on it later.
Kevin Harvick to Finish Top 10 (+175)
Kevin Harvick doesn't have the same upside as McDowell, so the outright isn't as tempting. But he's steady, and that matters here.
In six Next-Gen races on road courses, Harvick has three top-10s. He was 11th and 12th in two of the others with the 11th-place run coming here at COTA. He finished races, and he was fast enough for that to matter.
Because of this combo, my model has Harvick's top-10 odds at 40.1%, up from 36.4% implied. I do think there's an argument to waiting as Harvick never qualified better than 18th on a road course last year, so there's a chance we could get a better number on Sunday. I think that's a fair point, so this one is more personal preference. I just have a hard time turning down almost four percentage points of value.
Ty Gibbs to Finish Top 10 (+430)
Despite Christopher Bell's win at Charlotte, Toyotas were booty on road courses last year. They combined for just two top-10 average running positions all year, both of which came from Bell.
My model is leaning on that data to determine Ty Gibbs' equipment prior. It knows they sucked. And yet it still thinks Gibbs is undervalued here.
Gibbs is a three-time road-course winner in the Xfinity Series, including a win in his first career race back in 2021. He got wins while dueling with Kyle Larson and A.J. Allmendinger, who boast top-10 odds of -700 and -230, respectively, at FanDuel this weekend.
Granted, they're both in Chevys, and Gibbs is with the struggling Toyotas. But that's accounted for in this number, and it's always possible Toyota made gains during the offseason.
Due to the Toyota concerns, my model puts Gibbs' top-10 odds at 24.1%, well below those of Larson and Allmendinger. But it's still above his 18.9% implied odds at +430. I'm willing to bet on the talent once again here and snag a good road racer at a long number.
Ryan Preece to Finish Top 10 (+700)
Back in his JTG-Daugherty days, Ryan Preece never truly lit it up on road courses. He has just one career road-course top-10 in 12 races.
But he's with Stewart-Haas Racing now, who gave respectable cars to Harvick, Chase Briscoe, and Cole Custer on road courses last year. It's an equipment upgrade, and it's not as if Preece was fully out to lunch with his old team.
Preece has the same top-10 odds is in the same equipment as Aric Almirola, who has the same number of top-10s on road courses as Preece since 2019 despite running six more races. Basically, he'd need to struggle as much as Almirola does on road courses to justify a number this long, and we don't know if that'll be the case just yet.
As a result, my model has Preece's top-10 odds at 18.3%, up from 12.5% implied. He's a distant third behind his non-Almirola teammates, but until Preece gives us a reason to think otherwise, we should be higher on him in this equipment.
