NASCAR Cup Series at Phoenix odds, picks, preview: Joey Logano favored for more success in Arizona
Four months ago, Joey Logano won the NASCAR Cup Series championship with a race win in Phoenix. Logano and the NASCAR Cup Series return to Phoenix Raceway this weekend for the United Rentals Work United 500 (that’s a mouthful).
Logano is favored to win this weekend. Him and Ryan Blaney both have +800 odds to win in Arizona. Logano has success at this track in the past, but it’s the first mile track of the season so there are a lot of unknowns among the field.
There is a 500 at the end of the race name, but this is one of the shorter race distances of the season. The 500 is measured in kilometers. This is a 312-mile race.
The Athletic’s motorsports reporters, answered questions and made predictions.
Joey Logano is the favorite (along with Ryan Blaney) after winning last season’s championship at this track. He also won this race in 2020. What makes Logano good in Phoenix?
Gluck: If you asked him, he’d probably say a fast car. That’s cliche, but success at Phoenix often comes down to team and manufacturer in a given year. Last year, each of the Phoenix races saw two drivers lead at least 100 laps – all of them were Fords (Logano, Chase Briscoe and Blaney, who did it twice). Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets won the two championship races in the years before the Next Gen car debuted. Kevin Harvick was once unbeatable at Phoenix and has nine wins there – but none since 2018. So it seems to go in patterns. Who will be good this time? Well, NASCAR just changed the short track package and we haven’t seen a full-field practice with it yet, so who knows? Pay attention to Friday’s 50-minute session and make judgments off that before you put any money on this race.
Bianchi: A fast car certainly helps. That’s first and foremost. Phoenix is the kind of track where a driver needs to have a strong car underneath them if they hope to have any chance at scoring wins; this is not a track where upsets frequently occur. But as Jeff noted, NASCAR introducing a new rules package this weekend creates a level of uncertainty where you can’t necessarily go off what transpired last year because there are just too many unknowns.
Kyle Busch is a tad ahead of Kyle Larson as the betting favorites to win the championship this year. It’s way too early to think about that, but does it make sense for those two to be the early frontrunners?
Gluck: Since Ross Chastain wasn’t included in the above question, I figured he must have been third in the championship odds. Nope; third is a tie between Logano, Denny Hamlin, William Byron and Chase Elliott (who won’t even be racing for the next six weeks). After that is Ryan Blaney and then Chastain, who is in a three-way tie for eighth with Christopher Bell and Martin Truex Jr. Huh? Seriously? How are people not paying more attention to Chastain? He was second in the championship last year, is the current Cup Series points leader and has already shown he’ll have a fast car again most weeks this season. To overlook him would be silly, but it also gives you a chance at some tasty +1100 odds if you’re willing to tie up your money for the next eight months while waiting for the championship race.
Bianchi: It’s absolutely baffling that the driver who finished a close second in the championship a year ago and currently leads the points standings isn’t getting more love from oddsmakers. Makes zero sense.
That the Kyles, Busch and Larson, are the early title favorites is reasonable taking into account both are former champions and have won races already this season. The only hesitation is that we’re just three weeks into the season and a lot can still change. Case in point, at this point a year ago Larson had already won a race and was coming off a dominating 2021 season, which created the impression he was going to steamroll to a second consecutive championship. But that didn’t happen. He wouldn’t win another race until August and his season was pot-marked by mistakes, culminating with him surprisingly eliminated in the second playoff round. So go ahead and lay some money on Busch and Larson, but do so with the knowledge that things can and will change between now and the championship final.
New sponsor this year. Where does United Rentals Work United 500 rank in the awkward-sounding sponsor race names list?
Gluck: When the race name was listed above, I thought it was a typo. United Rentals Work United 500? I’m not sure we really need two of the same word in the name of a race, but there it is. That said, there have been far cringier/awkward race names in NASCAR history. As much as we’d like to forget the “Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard Powered by Florida Georgia Line,” it might stick with us forever.
Bianchi: While the race name is clunky, this doesn’t even crack the top 10 list of awkward race names. That dubious list includes the likes of the Roseanne 300, the SpongeBob SquarePants 400, the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at The Glen, and the 1000Bulbs.com 500.
What longshots do you think can be in the mix this weekend?
Gluck: This might be a leap, but let’s assume the Fords are again fast at Phoenix despite the rules package change. Chase Briscoe jumped up and surprised everyone last year. Well, maybe his Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Ryan Preece (+4000) could do the same. Preece is a short track ace and had a great run going at the Clash. Perhaps he could hit on the Phoenix setup in the same way Briscoe did last year. That said, we’ll have a much better idea of who is good after Friday’s practice.
Bianchi: He was the dark horse pick in this space a week and while Austin Cindric didn’t win, he did leave Las Vegas with a sixth-place finish. So let’s tab Cindric again because 1) Fords were fast here last year and he drives a Ford and 2) his Team Penske teammates, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney, dominated here last fall.
Who is your pick to win the race?
Gluck: I’ll go with Martin Truex Jr. (+1000). I really wish I didn’t have to make a pick before practice, but waiting until afterward would be sort of cheating anyway. I recommend you wait and see the 10-lap averages from practice before putting your money on anyone, but I’ll lean on Truex’s solid history of speed at 1-mile flat-ish tracks for now.
