2023 NASCAR at Phoenix odds, predictions, start time, lineup: Model reveals surprising spring race picks
The 2023 United Rentals Work United 500 will be the first of two races held at Phoenix Raceway during the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series schedule. Dialing in your setup at this track early in the season could have a big payoff down the road. Phoenix Raceway is also where the NASCAR Cup Series champion is crowned and on Sunday, Joey Logano will try to recapture the magic that won him his second title last season. Roger Penske's Fords dominated the day in last year's NASCAR Finale, with Logano leading 187 laps on his way to the win and Ryan Blaney leading 109 laps on his way to a second-place finish.
Blaney and Logano are near the top of this week's 2023 NASCAR at Phoenix odds board at Caesars Sportsbook. Blaney is the 13-2 favorite, while Logano is 17-2 along with Kyle Larson. There are six other drivers on this week's NASCAR odds board listed at 10-1 or lower. Before scouring the 2023 United Rentals Work United 500 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Phoenix predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 Pennzoil 400 picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), and Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1). It also impressively nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping nine winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Top 2023 United Rentals Work United 500 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Ross Chastain, even though he's an 11-1 long shot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Phoenix odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Chastain seemingly came from out of nowhere last season to finish second in the NASCAR Cup Series standings to Joey Logano, but savvier racing fans might have seen the move coming with NASCAR rolling out a Next-Gen car designed to level the playing field last year.
Chastain showed flashes of potential in 2021 with three top-five finishes, eight top-10s and a 20th-place finish, which prompted the move to Trackhouse. Trackhouse took advantage of the parity and put together a strong season in 2022, with Chastain and teammate Daniel Suarez both earning wins and making it into the NASCAR playoffs. Chastain was top-three in both races at Phoenix last season and is a clear threat to get to the front again on Sunday. See who else to back at SportsLine.
And a massive shocker: Ryan Blaney, the top Vegas favorite at 13-2, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2023 United Rentals Work United 500 starting lineup. The 29-year-old has made the postseason the last six years, but the seven-time NASCAR Cup Series winner is mired in a 49-race winless streak and enters Sunday sitting 15th in the NASCAR standings.
Blaney has been top 10 in his last five starts at Phoenix Raceway and has led laps in every race during that span (321 total), but he's been unable to secure a victory in any of those runs. In fact, he's winless in 14 career starts on the one-mile oval in Avondale, Ariz. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.
How to make 2023 NASCAR at Phoenix picks
The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2023 NASCAR Phoenix odds of 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
2023 United Rentals Work United 500 odds, lineup
Ryan Blaney 13-2Kyle Larson 17-2Joey Logano 17-2Denny Hamlin 9-1Christopher Bell 9-1Kyle Busch 9-1William Byron 10-1Kevin Harvick 10-1Ross Chastain 11-1Alex Bowman 18-1Chase Briscoe 22-1Tyler Reddick 22-1Bubba Wallace 30-1Brad Keselowski 35-1Daniel Suarez 35-1Aric Almirola 40-1Ryan Preece 45-1Josh Berry 50-1Erik Jones 50-1Austin Dillon 60-1Austin Cindric 60-1Ty Gibbs 60-1A.J. Allmendinger 100-1Noah Gragson 100-1Chris Buescher 100-1Justin Haley 125-1Corey Lajoie 200-1Zane Smith 250-1Harrison Burton 250-1Michael McDowell 250-1Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300-1Ty Dillon 1500-1Todd Gilliland 1500-1Cody Ware 5000-1
