NASCAR Cup Series in Phoenix: Best bets for Shriners Children’s 500
The NASCAR Cup Series goes short track racing for the first time in 2024 as it wraps up a two-week trip to the West Coast at Phoenix Raceway with the running of the Shriners Children’s 500.
This weekend marks the first of two trips to Phoenix Raceway — a flat, one-mile tri-oval that will also play host to Championship Weekend in November.
Kyle Larson (+600), who won last week at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in dominant fashion, enters the weekend as the betting favorite for the second-straight week, with Ryan Blaney (+700) and William Byron (+750) following suit.
Here are some drivers I have my eye on to win at Phoenix.
Ryan Blaney (+700)
While Bryon is the defending winner of the spring race and sure to be a factor again, Blaney is my pick of the “Big Three” entering the weekend.
Blaney has done everything but win at Phoenix, including three-straight runner-up finishes. After coming in third at Las Vegas last week, there’s no reason to believe Blaney can’t go toe-to-toe with the Chevrolets at the top of the board.
Ross Chastain (+850)
Chastain continues to show great speed to open the year. Coming off of a well-earned fourth-place finish at Las Vegas, he heads to a track where he absolutely smoked the field last fall. He’s been one of the best at Phoenix in the Next Gen car (which was introduced in 2022), with top-three finishes in all but one race.
This is a great spot for Chastain to continue to deliver on consistency. There are still some +1000 bets out there, and I wouldn’t think twice about betting that number, but settling for no less than +850 I believe is fair for the Melon Man.
Tyler Reddick (+1600)
Reddick has put together a mixed bag of results at Phoenix, but he’s shown top-five speed in the last two spring races with a pair of third-place finishes. The question isn’t whether Reddick can be fast, but rather can the No. 45 team as a whole minimize the mistakes that continue to set the team back?
If they can clean up the snafus on pit road, then expect Reddick to be a contender in Phoenix. His price is sure to see movement as we inch closer to the weekend, so I’d take advantage of value here while you can.
Chase Briscoe (+2000)
Stewart-Haas Racing is showing signs of life coming out of Las Vegas, and for a veteran like Briscoe, Phoenix presents a great opportunity for the No. 14 to have a strong day.
Briscoe broke through for his first-career Cup Series victory at Phoenix in the spring of 2022, and has finished seventh or better in three of the last four at the track. He’s also qualified inside of the top 10 in the last two races, another encouraging sign of speed in the race car. If he can extend that streak into Phoenix this weekend, this is good value for a driver who is finding his form early in the season.
Josh Berry (+8000), Michael McDowell (+10000)
Here are a pair of Fords that profile as extreme longshots, but I’m still going to keep my eye on them this week.
Berry finished 10th in this race last spring, filling in for Chase Elliott, and he followed that up with a runner-up finish at Richmond in the same car. Now, in his first full-time Cup Series season, we should not overlook Berry in Phoenix, knowing his background in short track racing. While I’m not interested in betting him outright, I wouldn’t be opposed to a top-10 finishing position prop at plus money.
Front Row Motorsports came back down to earth at Las Vegas with Todd Gilliland and McDowell finishing 24th and 25th, respectively. I’m interested to see how McDowell bounces back at Phoenix because he has proven he can get it done and run in the top half of the field. He posted a career-best 12.6 average finish on short, flat tracks in 2023, and that included a ninth-place finish in the season finale at Phoenix. Add in the fact that Front Row Motorsports’ alliance with Team Penske looks to have given Front Row a boost in on-track performance, we should continue to see the No. 34 improve week to week. There’s upside with McDowell to score a top 10 finish this weekend, but I’m certainly not opposed to a dart throw in the outright market at +10000.
