2023 NASCAR at Atlanta odds, predictions, start time: Model reveals shocking Ambetter Health 400 picks

All eyes will be on William Byron on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET when the NASCAR Cup Series returns to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the 2023 Ambetter Health 400. Byron is coming off of back-to-back NASCAR Cup Series wins, but is also one of three drivers who were penalized at Phoenix last week. Byron, along with fellow Hendrick Motorsports drivers Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman, were penalized 100 points and 10 playoff points each after a post-race inspection revealed unapproved parts modifications had been made.

The penalty hasn't hurt Byron at sportsbooks, however, and he is as the 9-1 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook in the latest 2023 Ambetter Health 400 odds. Larson and Kyle Busch are listed at 10-1 NASCAR at Atlanta odds, while Ross Chastain and Joey Logano are at 11-1. Before scouring the 2023 Ambetter Health 400 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Atlanta predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 Ambetter Health 400 picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), and Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1). It also impressively nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping nine winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Top 2023 Ambetter Health 400 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Kevin Harvick, even though he's a 20-1 long shot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Atlanta odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 47-year-old has a strong track record at Atlanta Motor Speedway with three wins and 16 top-10 finishes in 34 starts, getting his first ever NASCAR Cup Series victory there in 2001.

The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series points leader is still looking for his first win of the season, but has plenty of momentum heading into NASCAR at Atlanta 2023. He has two top-five finishes so far, including at last week's race at Phoenix Raceway where he led 36 laps before landing in fifth. See who else to back at SportsLine.

And a massive shocker: William Byron, the Vegas favorite at 9-1, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2023 Ambetter Health 400 starting lineup. Byron won the spring race in Atlanta last season and is coming off back-to-back wins that include a win on a 1.5-mile oval (Las Vegas), so it's no surprise that he's the favorite.

However, tire failures were an issue in Atlanta after the surface had been repaved during the offseason and additional adjustments mean the track is likely to run differently again. Byron went on to finish 30th after a crash in the summer race and has finished 17th or worse in five of his seven career Cup starts at Atlanta Motor Speedway. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 NASCAR at Atlanta picks

The model is also targeting one other driver with 2023 NASCAR Atlana odds of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

2023 Ambetter Health 400 odds, lineup

William Byron 9-1Kyle Larson 10-1Kyle Busch 10-1Ross Chastain 11-1Joey Logano 11-1Christopher Bell 12-1Denny Hamlin 12-1Ryan Blaney 12-1Brad Keselowski 17-1Alex Bowman 18-1Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20-1Bubba Wallace 20-1Chris Buescher 20-1Kevin Harvick 20-1Daniel Suarez 22-1Martin Truex Jr. 22-1Aric Almirola 25-1Tyler Reddick 25-1Chase Briscoe 28-1Austin Cindric 28-1Austin Dillon 30-1Josh Berry 35-1Erik Jones 35-1Corey Lajoie 45-1Ryan Preece 50-1Todd Gilliland 50-1Michael McDowell 50-1Noah Gragson 50-1A.J. Allmendinger 50-1Justin Haley 60-1Ty Gibbs 60-1Harrison Burton 65-1Ty Dillon 250-1BJ McLeod 1000-1Cody Ware 1000-1