NASCAR Odds, New Hampshire: No to Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott again
Christopher Bell has finished 18th and 23rd the previous two weeks.
He hasn’t finished better than seventh in over two months.
You ready for this?
He’s also the gamblers’ favorite to win this week’s NASCAR race at New Hampshire Speedway. Without much else to go on, it seems, the wagering public and the bookmakers who entice them are strictly looking at Bell’s last two starts at New Hampshire, when he finished second and then first.
A year ago, all 42 laps he led happened to be the final 42 laps, after Martin Truex had dominated the vast majority of the race and then did what Martin Truex did much of last year — he found a way to avoid Victory Lane.
That runner-up finish for Bell the year before? Write it off, because it was in the old Cup car, the pre-Next Gen.This isn’t to say Christopher Bell won’t win Sunday. What it does say, however, is “Who the hell else are you gonna favor?”
Remember when Kyle Larson was the favorite week after week? His lengthening run of bad luck and mishaps finally has him bumped to fourth on the odds board this week.
Meanwhile, poor ol’ New Hampshire. We’re coming off two bangers — the street race in Chicago, followed by all that action at Atlanta. Sorry, but you should probably loosen those belts — this one should be a downer, compared to the past two weeks.
But guess what. It pays the same green American cash as all the others. Let’s go pick a winner!
The faves: What happened to Kyle Larson?
Christopher Bell +550; Martin Truex +650; Denny Hamlin +750; Kyle Larson +850
Denny is the only driver on this list, other than Bell, who has won at New Hampshire. That means nothing, of course. And you know, one of these weeks, Larson is going to lead 90% of the laps and win a race and we’ll all say, “I knew it was coming!”
Wow, look where Chase Elliott has fallen
Kyle Busch +1,000; Kevin Harvick +1,000; William Byron +1,200; Ryan Blaney +1,200; Chase Elliott +1,200; Joey Logano +1,400
Back in February, it would’ve been hard to imagine a scenario in which Billy Clyde Elliott slid down to a tie for seventh on the list of favorites.
Brad Keselowski missed his chance last week
Tyler Reddick +1,800; Ross Chastain +1,800; Brad Keselowski +2,000; Aric (With an A) Almirola +2,200
A lot of us are pulling for Kez to get a win, but he’s probably listed at too low a price this week. He probably would’ve won Atlanta if it had lasted another 10 laps. By the way, it didn’t and he didn’t.
Might not like Bubba for the win, but ….
Bubba Wallace +3,000; Alex Bowman +4,000; Ty Gibbs +4,500; Daniel Suarez +4,500; Chris Buescher +5,000
We don’t like Bubba to win this week, though he ran very well at New Hampshire last year. However, we might chat about him during the prop-bet segment below.
A few others, including Flyin’ Ryan Newman
Austin Dillon +10,000; AJ Allmendinger +10,000; Michael McDowell +20,000; Ryan Newman +100,000
Ryan Newman used to win the New Hampshire pole seemingly every year. Yep, it was a long, long time ago. This is the second of five races he's scheduled to run as one of several fill-in drivers in Rick Ware Racing's No. 51.
Prop ’em up
● Ryan Newman is at +13,000 for a top-5 finish. Our $50 on that would return $6,500. Unlikely, but stranger things have happened. Give me a freak rainstorm and unfortunate pit sequences and … oh, never mind.
● Bubba Wallace finished third at New Hampshire last year, and is getting a +380 for a top-5 this week, and +850 for another top-3.
● On the driver-vs-driver front, we have Daniel Suarez vs. Aric Almirola, both at -115, meaning our $50 allotment for the prop bet would net $43.47. I think Suarez is basically automatic here.
● As for the badges, Toyota is favored at +140, with Chevy at +170 and Ford +220.
Last week
Chase Elliott to win.
Martin Truex to finish top-5.
Lose.
Lose.
This week
Reminder on the format: Of the allotted C-note, $50 goes to picking a winner, $50 to a prop bet.
I’m going with Truex for the win.
The other 50? Man, I’m torn.
Gimme a minute.
Taking Bubba for a top-5, and certainly for a top-3, would pay well, but I’m thinking it’s best to go conservative just to get that winning smell back. I truly see no way, barring early-race BS, Suarez doesn’t finish ahead of Almirola, because let’s face it, we’re all finishing ahead of Aric Almirola these days.
Won’t pay much, but who cares at this point?
Truex to win, Suarez to beat Almirola.
