NASCAR Odds, Phoenix: Championship 4, led by Kyle Larson, favored
In spite of what you might’ve heard, all of the “other” drivers in Phoenix aren’t required to wear white gloves and surgical masks.
It’ll just seem that way.
For the past nine seasons, as four racers have gone to the final race of the NASCAR season with a shot at winning the championship, one of those four has won the race — and the championship, of course.
Not since Denny Hamlin in 2013, at Homestead, has a non-Championship 4 racer made things awkward by winning the final race and forcing everyone to watch two separate celebrations.
And it appears the wagering public has noticed, and that they’re also big on trends. Just look at that odds board and the dropoff between the Championship 4 and Kevin Harvick, who carries the fifth-best odds entering Phoenix, a place where he never, ever has a bad day.
Of the four championship contenders, only Kyle Larson is a past champ. So, with a three-in-four chance, you’d like to say, “odds are, we’ll crown a first-time champion Sunday.”
But man, look at those odds. Fact is, the numbers say Kyle picks up his second Cup Series trophy. And they say it loudly.
You’d have to bet $100 on Kyle just to win $165.
Momentum and recent Phoenix prowess screams Ryan Blaney, but this season, momentum has been a flighty thing.
Let’s take a gander at that top-heavy odds board and see if we can find something intriguing …
Ryan Blaney isn't favored?
Kyle Larson +165; Ryan Blaney +275; William Byron +320; Christopher Bell +450
All four of these dudes finished in the top-6 at Phoenix back in March, with Byron and Blaney finishing 1-2. Bell’s sixth-place run was his best in seven starts at Phoenix, where he’s never led a lap, by the way (in case you were wondering why he’s running fourth in pre-weekend wagering).
Kevin Harvick gets another shot at a parting gift
Kevin Harvick +1,300; Tyler Reddick +2,200; Joey Logano +2,200; Denny Hamlin +2,200; Martin Truex Jr. +2,800
Harvick is basically the Desert Fox, given his wildly successful record at Phoenix — 41 starts, nine wins, 20 top-5s, 30 top-10s. That’s David Pearson-at-Darlington stuff right there.
Bubba Wallace checks in, Aric Almirola checking out
Chase Briscoe +5,500; Brad Keselowski +5,500; Ross Chastain +7,000; Chris Buescher +7,000; Ty Gibbs +8,000; Bubba Wallace +9,000; Aric Almirola +13,000
You like outliers? My goodness, what to make of Almirola? Just cruising around all year, not making a peep — just three top-10s in 33 weeks — then he finishes ninth at Homestead, announces his pending retirement, and runs second (SECOND!) last week at Martinsville. Listen, it ain’t happening, but at +13,000, even a $10 flier would be worth $1,300 if he did the unthinkable.
Long, Longer and Longest Shots
Erik Jones +25,000; Daniel Suarez +25,000; AJ Allmendinger +50,000; Ryan Newman +100,000
The formerly Flyin’ Ryan is one of seven at +100,000. That list includes Michael McDowell. “But wait,” you say, “hasn’t Michael Mac won a race and run well at times this year?” Yep, but it’s the same McDowell who has more Phoenix finishes of 40th or worse (five) than he does top-20s (three).
Props
● Here are the Championship Four and their numbers for a top-3 and top-5 finish: Larson -280/-500; Blaney -175/-280; Byron -165/-245; Bell +120/-175
● Almirola — again, last week’s runner-up — is offering +1,600 for a top-3 and +800 for a top-5.
● Hamlin, probably racing angry, is +550/+200 for top-3 and top-5.
● Strength in Numbers Dept.: Chevy (Byron, Larson) is +100 for the win, Ford (Blaney) +180; Toyota (Bell) +320.
● Head-to-head action: Larson (-145) vs. Blaney (+110); Byron (-125) vs. Bell (-105).
Last Week
Put $50 on Hamlin to win, the other $50 on Toyota to win. That's what you call full confidence, no hedging at all.
Ryan Blaney won in his Ford, and the hedgehogs get the last laugh, yet again.
This Week
One last shot at bringing back some of the losses, or maybe winging it, picking a non-Championship racer and, dream of dreams, getting back all those losses and maybe even finishing ahead for the year.
All I need is to pick someone from Chase Briscoe (+5,500) on down the board to win.
Oh, I also need them to win. Man, always a catch, you know?
Hamlin, back in 2013 at Homestead, is the last non-champ to win the championship race. Him, Logano and maybe Harvick are the only three drivers I think might end that streak and go to Victory Lane while the champ is being crowned.
But I’m sticking with Billy The Kid. Byron, at +320, would only pay $160 on our $50 wager, but at this point we’re simply trying to manage the flow of red ink, not work miracles.
And maybe I’m putting way too much stock on his run last week at Martinsville, but give me Almirola for a top-5 at +800. With our other $50, that’d be worth $400 by my exquisite mathematics.
