Xfinity 500 Predictions, Odds & Picks
After eight wild weeks, there are only two more races remaining in the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. Tomorrow, the Round of 8 will wrap up with the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville (2:00 pm ET, NBC).
Who will claim the last two spots in the Championship 4? After coming up just short in his last-lap battle with Kyle Larson in the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Christopher Bell booked his spot alongside Larson by winning last week’s 4EVER 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
After edging Bell at the line in Vegas, Larson inadvertently helped him out by crashing into a barrier entering pit road. That caution helped Bell be able to move into contention for the win, and he drove away from the other hopefuls after taking the lead from William Byron with 15 laps left.
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While Byron missed out on making his spot certain, he is in a strong position ahead of tomorrow’s race. Anything can happen from here, but a lot would have to go wrong for Byron to miss out on reaching the Championship 4 for the first time in his Cup Series career.
Current NASCAR Cup Series Points Standings (Entering the Xfinity 500)
- William Byron – 4126
- Christopher Bell – 4110
- Ryan Blaney – 4106
- Kyle Larson – 4105
- Tyler Reddick – 4096
- Martin Truex Jr. – 4089
- Denny Hamlin – 4089
- Chris Buescher – 4063
Last year, Bell won this race to join Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott, and eventual series champion Joey Logano in the Championship 4.
Will we see former winners Denny Hamlin or Martin Truex Jr. deliver to bump Blaney or Byron out of the running? Hamlin, one of ten drivers to win both the spring and fall Martinsville races multiple times each, is the favorite to take the checkered flag tomorrow, followed by Larson, Byron, Truex, and Brad Keselowski.
Odds to Win the 2023 Xfinity 500
- Denny Hamlin +350
- Kyle Larson +700
- William Byron +800
- Brad Keselowski +900
- Martin Truex Jr. +900
- Ryan Blaney +1000
- Tyler Reddick +1200
- Joey Logano +1400
- Chase Elliott +1600
- Christopher Bell +1600
- Kevin Harvick +2000
- Kyle Busch +2000
- Chase Briscoe +2800
- Bubba Wallace +3000
- Chris Buescher +3000
- Ross Chastain +3000
- Aric Almirola +3300
- Ty Gibbs +3300
Xfinity 500 Predictions & Picks
In April, Larson took the win at the NOCO 400, finally adding a Cup Series win at Martinsville to his long list of racing accomplishments.
In that race, Logano finished second, with Truex, Hamlin, and Chase Briscoe rounding out the top five.
At the time, that was Logano’s third top-five finish and fifth top-ten finish in the first nine races this season. Since then, he has finished in the top five only five times and in the top ten 11 times in 26 races.
It has been a disappointing season for Logano, whose quest to repeat ended in the Round of 16.
But he has finished fifth, 12th, and eighth in the last three races, and Martinsville has been a place of great success for the two-time Cup Series champion. Ie has 15 top-ten finishes in his last 19 Cup appearances there, including a win in the 2018 edition of this race and a current run of eight top tens in a row. At Bovada, he is -120 to make it nine straight.
Recent Xfinity 500 Winners
- 2022: Christopher Bell
- 2021: Alex Bowman
- 2020: Chase Elliott
- 2019: Martin Truex Jr.
- 2018: Joey Logano
- 2017: Kyle Busch
- 2016: Jimmie Johnson
- 2015: Jeff Gordon
- 2014: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
- 2013: Jeff Gordon
Bell’s spot in the Championship 4 is already locked in, but that doesn’t mean that he will take it easy this week. He has four top-four finishes in his last six races, and with that in mind, evens to finish in the top ten is outstanding value.
In the spring Martinsville race, Aric Almirola came in sixth. That is one of his four top-ten finishes this season, with the most recent being a ninth-place finish last week.
Almirola hasn’t had consecutive top tens since a run of five straight that spanned the last two races of the 2021 season and the first three races last year.
But after announcing this morning that this year is his last in the Cup Series, the 39-year-old Stewart Haas Racing driver will be aiming for his fourth top ten in his last six starts at Martinsville. I’m riding with him to do so, which comes in at +140 at Bovada.
For my last finishing position pick for the Xfinity 500, I’m going with another driver who ran well in the spring race.
Briscoe’s fifth-place finish was part of a three-race stretch in which he finished fifth at Bristol, fifth at Martinsville, and fourth at Talladega. Briscoe has finished in the top ten only three times since that stretch, but he has three straight top tens at Martinsville. At Bovada, he is +125 to make it a fantastic four.
But who will take the checkered flag? Both Truex and Hamlin have had a tense relationship with good fortune during the playoffs, so it’s hard to bet on either of them.
That said, I expect Truex (a three-time winner at Martinsville, twice in the fall race and once in the spring), Hamlin, or Byron (the winner of the 2022 spring race) to get the win.
Where to Bet on NASCAR
Many of the top sports betting sites offer a variety of NASCAR betting odds. Throughout the season, you can bet on races like the Daytona 500, Coca-Cola 600, and others, like the Xfinity 500.
Along with being able to bet on the winner of each Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and/or Truck Series race, sportsbooks like Bovada offer finishing position odds (top 3, top 5, and/or top 10).
Also, odds on who will finish at the top of the championship standings are available at many reputable sportsbooks.
In addition to Bovada, here are some of the sites that we recommend if you are interested in NASCAR betting:
If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.
